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【名称及出版时间】：齐鲁证券-2010年宏观经济与政策分析：促消费、调结构、稳增长-091216.PDF
【来源】：齐鲁证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：39
【内容提要】：
一、全球经济：逐步走出金融危机的阴影···························· - 5 -
二、中国经济：在发展中调整结构 ······························ - 8 -
（一）经济增长：有利因素在积累，增长可持续····················· - 8 -
（二）工业经济：增长高度决定中国经济未来······················ - 10 -
（三）固定资产投资：****投资在危机期间彰显优势 ··················· - 12 -
（四）国内消费：在政策刺激下继续稳定增长······················ - 15 -
（五）对外贸易：熬过寒冬有望恢复到危机前水平···················· - 17 -
（六）区域规划：助推经济转型···························· - 19 -
三、成长的烦恼：后危机时期中国经济绕不过的难题······················· - 21 -
四、流动性：由“极度”宽松回归到 “适度”宽松 ······················· - 23 -
（一） “极度”宽松的流动性推升价格 ························· - 23 -
（二）此宽松非彼宽松——宽松不可持续························ - 25 -
（三）货币政策调控路线 ······························ - 25 -
（四）热钱问题长期影响中国····························· - 27 -
五、通胀：预期即将演变成现实 ······························· - 29 -
（一）经济运行游历在通胀与通缩之间························· - 29 -
（二）通胀渐行渐进 ································ - 30 -
（三）10年形成通胀的主要因素 ··························· - 31 -
（四）通胀是表象，货币是根源因素·························· - 33 -
六、宏观政策：由保增长转向调结构 ····························· - 34 -
（一）中央经济工作会议定调10年宏调框架 ······················ - 34 -
（二）结构调整任重道远 ······························ - 34 -
（三） “双宽松”政策有新意 ····························· - 35 -
七、经济增长、货币周期与股指变动 ····························· - 36 -
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