20180723【充实计划】第776期

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1.今天你阅读到的有价值的全文内容链接

推荐： 《投行笔记（资本的游戏）》（PDF、MOBI、EPUB版都有）

By：徐子桐   2B，比较值！

https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-6530146-1-1.html

2.今天你阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录

今天继续读：《Definitive Guide to Position Sizing》:Chapter 2

Risk(R) and R-Multiples （10 questions for R-multiples）

……

Understanding R-multiples

All of your profits and losses should be related to your initialrisk. You want your losses to be 1R or less. That means if you say you’ll get out of a stock when it drops from 50USD to 40 USD, then you actually get out when it drops to 40 USD. If you getout when it drops to 30 USD, then your loss is much bigger than 1R. It’s twicewhat you were planning to lose, or a 2R loss. And you want to avoid thatpossibility at all costs.

Ideally, you want your profits to be much bigger than 1R. Forexample, you buy a stock at 8 USD and plan to get out if it drops to 6 USD, sothat your initial 1R loss I s 2 USD per share. The stock climbs and you sell at28USD for a profit of 20USD per share. Since this is 10 times what you risked,we call it a 10R profit.

Let’s look at some more examplesto make sure that you understand. The answers will be given at the end of theexercises.

1)  You buya stock at 40 USD and plan to exit if it drops to 38 USD. But it then gaps downsix points at the open the next day.  Youget out as soon as you can at 31 USD. Your 9 USD per share loss is whatmultiple of your initial risk? This example, by the way, is a good illustrationof how your losses can be greater than the planned maximum of 1R.

2) You buy a stock at 40 USD and plan to exit ifit drops 10% to 36 USD. You eventually sell when the stock rises to 80 USD pershare. What’s your profit as an R-multiple?

3) You buy a stock at 40 USD with a planned exitat 36 USD. You sell it at 45 USD, what’s your profit as an R-multiple?

4)You buy a stock at 60 USD and plan to get out ifit drops to 55 USD. However, when it goes that low, you don’t sell. Instead,you just stop looking at it and hope it will go back up. It doesn’t. It becomespart of the headline business news involving corporate scandal and eventuallythe stock becomes worthless. What’s your loss as an R-multiple? By the way,this perfectly describes the situation with Enron, WorldCom, or any number ofother companies that have gone bankrupt over the years. There were plenty ofsigns to get out of those stocks before and corporate scandal broke out.

5) You buy a stock at 50 USD a 1nd plan to sell itif it drops to 49 USD. The stock takes off and jumps 20 USD in three weekswhere you sell it at 70 USD. What is your profit as an R-multiple?

6)You buy a stock at 50 USD with a 25% trailingstop. The stock goes as high as 64 USD and then drops 25% where you get out at48 USD. What is your loss as an R-multiple?

7) You buy a stock option at 3 USD. You determinethat if the option drops by 50%, you’ll get out. However, you get lucky and theunderlying stock goes up 10 USD and your option goes up in value to 12 USDwhere you sell. What is your profit as an R-multiple?

8) You buy a stock option for 4.50 USD. You decidethat you’ll sell the option if it drops to 3 USD or less. However, the stockgaps down overnight and you find yourself with an option that’s only worth 1.50USD. You decide to hand on, hoping the stock will come back. It doesn’t.Instead, the option expires worthless. What’s your loss as an R-multiple?

9) You buy a futures contract for wheat at 3 USDper bushel. You decide that you’ll sell if wheat drops to 2.90 USD per bushel.Instead, wheat goes up to 4.50 USD bushel. What is your profit as a multiple ofyour initial risk? Incidentally, a wheat contract is 5,000 bushels, but youdon’t need to know that to answer this question. Why?

10) You decide to buy a stock when it breaks outof a trading rage at 40.35 USD. You’ll sell it if it moves back into thetrading range at 40 or you’ll keep a 10% trailing stop on it as it becomesprofitable. The stock moves to 57.20 USD and then you get stopped out at 51.48USD. What’s your profit as an R-multiple?

……

3.今天你阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想

      第一次做就只对了六个，第二次才能全对：看来对于R乘数的理解还需要加深加深加深，再加深。而且错误的当中显示出了对于作者思路需要更简捷的精练。

      购买决策的基本依据就是R乘数，所有的交易是R乘数的分布，这些R乘数的分布表达了自己所交易的系统设计的结果（当然是几率的）。如果有系统的话。那么，如果没有系统的话，结果自然就无所谓好坏，对错。只是赚钱而已。赚钱是小几率事件。

       需要在交易的过程中集中力量（时间，精力，信息收集等）在R乘数上。养成从R乘数角度来思考交易的习惯。

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