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目前，中国正在加紧布局半导体产业，很多资金纷纷涌向这个行业。但是，我认为这个行业是充满风险和陷阱的。长期看，这个行业的绝大多数公司的投资回报率都没有显著高于平均水平，而且还不得不面临巨大的周期性风险。在分析这个行业时，一大困难是如何把周期性和长期性的规律分开对待，如何识别企业的长期竞争优势和判断其投资价值。
我在学习整理半导体行业的时候，发现这本书是在该领域最具权威性最有见地的专业论述。作者是MIT的学者，通过多年追踪访谈，在详尽的数据基础上做了细致的分析，可以说这本书是任何研究半导体行业的研究员和投资者，或者行业管理者必读的经典。虽然是几年前的论著，但是仍然强烈推荐！
How the chip industry has responded to a series of crises over the past twenty-five years, often reinventing itself and shifting the basis for global competitive advantage.For decades the semiconductor industry has been a driver of global economic growth and social change. Semiconductors, particularly the microchips essential to most electronic devices, have transformed computing, communications, entertainment, and industry. In Chips and Change, Clair Brown and Greg Linden trace the industry over more than twenty years through eight technical and competitive crises that forced it to adapt in order to continue its exponential rate of improved chip performance. The industry's changes have in turn shifted the basis on which firms hold or gain global competitive advantage.These eight interrelated crises do not have tidy beginnings and ends. Most, in fact, are still ongoing, often in altered form. The U.S. semiconductor industry's fear that it would be overtaken by Japan in the 1980s, for example, foreshadows current concerns over the new global competitors China and India. The intersecting crises of rising costs for both design and manufacturing are compounded by consumer pressure for lower prices. Other crises discussed in the book include the industry's steady march toward the limits of physics, the fierce competition that keeps its profits modest even as development costs soar, and the global search for engineering talent.Other high-tech industries face crises of their own, and the semiconductor industry has much to teach about how industries are transformed in response to such powerful forces as technological change, shifting product markets, and globalization. Chips and Change also offers insights into how chip firms have developed, defended, and, in some cases, lost global competitive advantage.
- Series: The MIT Press
- Paperback: 272 pages
- Publisher: The MIT Press; Reprint edition (August 19, 2011)
- Language: English
Chips and Change_ How Crisis Re - Clair Brown.epub
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