A gravity model approach to forecasting tuberculosis transmission in cattle...

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英文文献：A gravity model approach to forecasting tuberculosis transmission in cattle-预测结核病在牛中的传播的重力模型方法
英文文献作者：Xie, Fang,Horan, Richard D.,Wolf, Christopher A.
英文文献摘要：
Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle has caused significant economic losses to livestock producers and has proven difficult to eradicate. It is suspected that cattle movement across different farms and regions is one of the key factors of bTB transmission in the United States. Prior attempts to model the epidemiology of bTB infection within cattle to predict disease transmission have not adequately captured the behavioral aspects of trade. A better understanding of livestock trade patterns would help in predicting disease transmission and the associated economic effects. In this paper, we develop a gravity model of livestock trade and link it to an epidemiological model of bTB transmission, with the goal being that this information could lead to improved disease surveillance and management. Our findings suggest that feedbacks between jointly determined disease dynamics and trade system matter and should be considered together for efficient disease management.

牛结核菌(bTB)给牲畜养殖者造成了巨大的经济损失，而且很难根除。据怀疑，牛在不同农场和地区的流动是bTB在美国传播的关键因素之一。以前试图通过建立牛结核菌感染的流行病学模型来预测疾病传播，但没有充分抓住交易的行为方面。更好地了解牲畜贸易模式将有助于预测疾病传播和相关的经济影响。在这篇论文中，我们开发了一个牲畜贸易的重力模型，并将其与bTB传播的流行病学模型联系起来，目的是通过这些信息改进疾病监测和管理。我们的研究结果表明，共同确定的疾病动态和交易系统之间的反馈是重要的，应该一起考虑有效的疾病管理。

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