发帖
雷达卡
good investment opportunities but also presents many uncertainties and
risks. On one hand, we believe Chinese equities could stage a rally
between now and 1Q10, driven by: 1) the government’s recent
reiteration of its “proactive fiscal policy” and “relatively loose monetary
policy” for 2010, which should help alleviate the market’s concerns
about possible earlier-than-expected monetary tightening; 2) the upward
earnings estimate revision momentum for MSCI China; 3) a marked
sequential improvement in liquidity from Dec-09 to 1Q10; and 4) the
expectation that Rmb will resume appreciation in FY10. On the other
hand, we could start to see an increase in market volatility for MSCI
China if and when the government starts to tighten its monetary policy
(possibly in 2Q10). We could see de-rating pressure for sectors that are
highly correlated with fixed-investment growth as we approach mid-
2010, when the equity market is likely to start pricing in a potential sharp
slowdown in fixed asset investment growth in 2011. Our major
investment strategy lies in focusing on defensive growth stocks—stocks
with good earnings visibility, low penetration rate, strong secular growth,
and those that should be least affected by a potential tightening kicking in
as of 2Q10 and a downshift in FAI growth in 2011.
• What is changing: We highlight our two key investment themes for
FY10: 1) accumulating consumption–related stocks to benefit from
China’s growth rebalance; and 2) identifying undervalued China
companies, which are likely to report record high earnings in FY09, but
are still trading at a decent discount to their highs in FY07, and are free
from major multiple contraction pressure.
• Information: We continue to see short-term trading opportunities for
media and airline stocks, and food inflation plays.
• China model portfolio adjustment: We stay positive on: A) China
banks; B) the coal sector; and C) defensive growth names—internet,
tissue and diapers, gas, selected consumer staples, and healthcare. We are
negative on: A) property on tightening concerns; within the sector, we
favor those with the most exposure to Tier 2-3 cities; B) telecoms; C)
FAI–related plays, including downstream commodities, commercial
vehicles and construction; and D) IPPs.
20091219 JPM China Insights & Strategy.pdf
(1.45 MB, 需要: 10 个论坛币)
京公网安备 11010802022788号
