Goldman Sachs--China: Metals & Mining: Coal

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China: Metals & Mining: Coal
Upside surprise continues, share weakness offers good entry point
【出版时间及名称】：091222高华证券-中国：金属及采矿：煤炭：基本面仍好于预期，股价的疲软提供了良好的买入时机
【作者】：高华证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：12
【目录或简介】：
New data points continue to suggest further fundamental upside
(1) Spot thermal coal price made ytd high of Rmb750/t, up 2.7% wow and
32% yoy, already reaching our 2010E full year spot forecast of Rmb750/t.
(2) Our channel checks indicate potential further fundamental upside:
-- IPP inventory at 9 days is 40% below seasonal norm of 15 days.
-- Leading indicator property new construction (leads construction demand
by avg. 3 months) in Nov is up 99% mom and 194% yoy.
-- November power generation is up 3.6% mom and 27% yoy.
-- Despite the government taking measures to prevent property prices in
1st tier cities from getting too high, we believe measures aiming to
increase property supply, such as stricter land purchase payment terms,
are positive for construction demand, good for cement/steel/aluminum,
which are all energy intensive sectors. Ytd power consumption is up
4.6% yoy, still below normalized level of 15% in the past five years.
-- The sharp rise in coastal freight of 145% since Oct to current Rmb108/t
also indicates demand strength in coastal area, the traditional export
manufacturing base, consistent with sequential sharp rebound of China
aggregate exports, up 43% mom (s.a., annualized) in November. Higher
domestic price opens up arbitrage for more coal imports.
-- More importantly, coal continues to be one of the few commodity
subsectors where supply is struggling.
-- Our latest channel check with coal traders still indicates difficulty in
sourcing from Shanxi small mines, a 2-3 year structural supply anchor.
Recent share price weakness opening up mispricing
(1) Thermal coal equity has pulled back by avg. 6% from recent high.
(2) We see two re-rating potentials for share prices, consensus too low.
-- Multiple expansion: Three thermal coal equities are trading at around
mid cycle on consensus earnings, still offer 11%-24% potential to peak P/E.
-- Consensus earnings too low: Consensus 2010E earnings imply a 6%
contract yoy increase to Rmb555/t and spot up 8% yoy to Rmb650/t.
Stock picks: Buy Yanzhou Coal, China Coal, and Shenhua
(1) Yanzhou Coal: 76% spot exposure; recent Felix acquisition conclusion
boosts volume growth to double digits and should re-rate the stock.
(2) Buy China Coal and Shenhua Energy for potential volume upside as
industry consolidation winners, double digit volume growth, and mid cycle
valuation. We maintain our earnings, ratings and 12-m TPs on the stocks.

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