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英文文献：Can Crop Insurance Premiums be Reliably Estimated?-作物保险费能可靠地估计吗?本文的目的是比较基于历史责任和赔偿数据(类似于风险管理机构目前使用的程序)的作物保险评级方法和“产量分布”方法的准确性
英文文献作者：Ramirez, Octavio A.,Carpio, Carlos E.,Rejesus, Roderick M.
英文文献摘要：
The objective of this paper is to compare the accuracy of crop insurance rating methods based on historical liability and indemnity data (similar to the procedure currently used by the Risk Management Agency) and “yield distribution” approaches. Estimated rates are compared to “true” rates using empirically-grounded simulation procedures that take into account common data availability constraints. Simulation results suggest that farm and county level rate estimates using the “yield distribution” approach are significantly more accurate than those based on historical indemnity and liability records.
使用基于经验的模拟程序将估计的速率与“真实”速率进行比较，这些模拟程序考虑了常见的数据可用性约束。模拟结果表明，使用“产量分布”方法估计的农场和县级比率比基于历史赔偿和责任记录的比率要准确得多。
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