09-12-10 MS——Global Equity Strategy

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【出版时间及名称】：2009-12-10 Global Equity Strategy (Morgen Stanley)
      【作者】：Jason E. Todd, etc
      【文件格式】：pdf
      【页数】：74
      【目录或简介】：
Overview
10 Trades for 2010……………………………………..................................3
Regional Allocation Summary …….….……………………….....................4
US Equities Summary…………………………………………………………6
Global Sector Allocation Summary…………………………………………..9
Part I – Macro Backdrop
Triple ‘A’ Liquidity Cycle + Triple ‘B’ Recovery………………...………….12
Quarterly GDP Profile…………………….……………….....……. ……….13
Global Equity Market Price Targets….....................................................14
Triple “C” Equity Expectation…………....................................................15
Part II – Valuation & Target
US: Multiple Expansion Over……………..…………………….……..…….17
US: S&P 500 Valuations Close to LT Average……..……………………..18
Global: Where is the Value? Non-Cyclicals over Cyclicals.….….……….19
US: Rising Long Bond Yields…........................……………………………20
Part III – Earnings
US Earnings - Near Term Deliverability vs Long Term Sustainability…...24
Margins the Key……………………..…….……….………..25
Sales Growth……………………………….…….…...……..26
2010 Operating EPS…………………………….…………..27
The Bull and the Bear Case……...……………….………...28
Part IV – Regional Allocation
Regional Allocation………………………..….…..…………........................30
US: A Stronger Relative vs. Absolute Call………………...…....................31
Europe: Neutral Based on Sector Neutral Valuation……………….….…..32
Japan: Sticking with a 2009 Pain Trade …...............................................34
UK Underweight on Both a Bull and Bear Growth Outlook..…….…...…..36
Part V – Sector Allocation
No Strong Cyclical or Style Tilt……………..............................................38
Base Case vs Bull Case Sector Positioning………………………….……39
Overweight Health Care………….………................................................41
Neutral Energy………………….……..……………………………….….….43
Neutral Industrials………….……………………………………….…….…..45
Underweight Financials………….………………………………….…….….46
Part VI – Stock Portfolio
Global Stock Portfolio Themes………………………..…..…………….49
Theme 1: Buy Large Cap Quality……………………….……………....51
Theme 2: Buy Asia/ Emerging Markets….……..................................52
Theme 3: Producer Over Consumer & Theme 4: Pricing Power.…...53
Them Five: Turnaround Potential……………………………………….54
The Portfolio……………………………………………………………….55
Key Statistics……..……………………………………………………..56
Exposure to Investment Themes……………………………………...57
Appendix & Stock Screens
The Quality Baskets………………………………………………………59
Top 40 US Quality Stocks………………………………………………..60
Top 40 Europe Quality Stocks…………………………………………...61
Top 40 Asia ex-Japan Quality Stocks…………………………………..62
Companies with High & Reliable Earnings Growth…………………....63
Companies with High & Reliable Dividend Growth…………………….64
Global Equity Performance at a Glance: By Region…………..……....65
Global Equity Performance at a Glance: By Sector…………………...66
Global Equity Valuation: By Region…….............................................67
Global Equity Valuation: By Sector.…….............................................68

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Great Report! Ding!