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【出版时间及名称】：2010年亚太证券市场展望
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：136
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
2
Australia
4 Economics A weak consumer in 2010
Gerard Minack
6 Strategy A falling Australian dollar, but banks may
underperform
Toby Walker
8 Strategy The market could end down in 2010
Toby Walker
10 Media – Fairfax Media: Hypothetical – what if FXJ
sold/outsourced its printing requirements?
Andrew McLeod, Ben Holgate
12 Media – Ten Network Holdings: Hypothetical – could a
PayTV operator see strategic value in an FTA licence?
Andrew McLeod, Ben Holgate
14 Property – Dexus: Restructuring could drive re-rating
towards our bull case
Lou Pirenc, Todd McFarlane, Chhai Ung
16 Retail – JB Hi-Fi Ltd: Bull case is realised
Richard Barwick
China
18 Strategy Inflation shock the key negative surprise to
remove Goldilocks
Jerry Lou
20 Airlines Renminbi appreciation and fuel cost
correction could surprise the market
Edward Xu
22 Airlines – China Southern Airlines: Oil price stays
below US$85/bbl in 2010E, boosting CSA’s earnings
Edward Xu
24 Autos & Auto Parts Best is behind us, limited upside
Kate Zhu
26 Banks Capital replenishment in 2010 – market seems
overly worried
Minyan Liu
28 Building Materials Restructuring theme re-emerging
Sandy Niu
30 Building Materials – China Resources Cement:
Key beneficiary of industry restructuring
Sandy Niu
32 Property It’s all about policy
Derek Kwong, Coral Ching
34 Shipping Excess capacity removed; balanced
fundamentals and strong freight rates
Sophie Loh
36 Steel China to be short of longs
Charles Spencer
38 Steel – Maanshan Iron & Steel: Positive outlook for
long products in 2010
Charles Spencer, Mean Phil Chong
Hong Kong
40 Economics Be alert for monetary tightening and
change in policy stance on land supply
Denise Yam
42 Banks Mid-cap banks facing structural headwinds –
could cause sector consolidation
Anil Agarwal
44 Macau Gaming & Property Commission cap could
improve margins
Praveen K Choudhary, Corey K Chan
46 Property Make or break: all eyes on liquidity and land
supply
Derek Kwong, Daphne Liang, Theo Cheng
India
48 Economics Watch capital inflows, inflation and
government execution on infrastructure
Chetan Ahya, Tanvee Gupta
50 Strategy Correlations break down
Ridham Desai, Sheela Rathi
52 Cement Capacity delays + strong demand = stable
cement prices
Ashish Jain
54 Construction & Infrastructure – Larsen & Toubro:
Gains in power equipment market share to drive upside
Akshay Soni
56 Consumer We see competitive intensity increasing
Hozefa Topiwalla, Girish Achhipalia
58 Financials Rising interest rates will be good for Indian
banks
Mihir Sheth
60 Four-Wheelers: Commercial Vehicles – Tata
Motors: Operating leverage & cost cutting drives JLR
into profitability
Binay Singh
62 Media – Zee Entertainment: Revenue
pickup/restructuring may surprise market in 2010
Vipul Prasad
64 Oil & Gas – Reliance Industries: 2010 to be the
turnaround year
Vinay Jaising
66 Pharmaceuticals – Ranbaxy Laboratories: Visibility to
monetize exclusivities will drive re-rating
Sameer Baisiwala, Saniel Chandrawat
68 Property Onset of new property cycle in 2010
Sameer Baisiwala, Arunabh Chaudhari
70 Retail – Titan: Potential reversal in business
fundamentals may surprise investors
Hozefa Topiwalla, Kalpesh Makwana
72 Steel – Tata Steel: Europe capacity utilization and
EBITDA rebound may surprise
Vipul Prasad
Table of Contents
3
74 Sugar May enter crisis situation; sugar prices will likely
surprise on the upside
Nillai Shah
76 Telecommunications – Bharti Airtel Ltd: Tariff wars
subside
Vinay Jaising
78 Utilities Power deficit strengthens spot prices for
longer
Parag Gupta
South Korea
80 Strategy Market remains attractive: Five key themes
for 2010
Chanik Park, Jason Pyo
82 Autos & Auto Parts New growth drivers to allow
earnings to again surprise on the upside
Sangkyoo Park, Hyunjae Lee
84 Autos & Auto Parts – Hyundai Motor: New models
underestimated
Sangkyoo Park
86 Hardware Components – LG Display: No hard
landing in 1H10
Keon Han
88 Semiconductors – Samsung Electronics: Stronger
DRAM leverage
Keon Han
90 Shipbuilding Restructuring and non-conventional
orders could support market leaders
Sangkyoo Park
92 Steel – Hyundai Steel: Likely beneficiary of tight
supply/demand for China long product
Hyunjae Lee
94 Technology DRAM: Likely winners in global industry
upturn
Keon Han
96 Technology Handsets: Threatening Nokia’s
dominance
Keon Han
Taiwan
98 Strategy Sustained earnings upgrade cycle
Jesse Wang
100 Financial Services – Cathay Financial Holdings:
Beneficiary of asset reflation and rate hikes
Lily Choi
102 Foundries The game changes in 2010
Bill Lu
104 Hardware Technology Demand/supply for PC
replacement; components and LED could surprise
Jasmine Lu
106 Property/Asset Plays Different mindset for 2010
Jeremy Chen
108 TFT LCD – Coretronic: Beneficiary of LED proliferation
Frank Wang, Jerry Su
110 Asia/Pacific Coverage Universe
120 Valuation Methodology and Risks
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