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英文文献：The Impact of Macroeconomic Conditions on Property Crime-宏观经济条件对财产犯罪的影响
英文文献作者：John M. Nunley,Richard Alan Seals Jr.,Joachim Zietz
英文文献摘要：
This paper examines the impact of inflation, (un)employment, and stock market growth on the rates of larceny, burglary, motor vehicle theft, and robbery. The study uses U.S. data for the time period 1948 to 2009. We employ an unobserved component approach to circumvent the problems associated with omitted variables. We find that the three macroeconomic variables have a statistically significant impact for most of the property crime rates. However, taken together the macroeconomic variables explain no more than 15 percent of the surge in property crimes from the 1960 to the 1980s and their subsequent fall during the 1990s. Among the macroeconomic variables, almost all of the explanatory power is provided by changes in the inflation rate.
本文考察了通货膨胀、(联合国)就业和股票市场增长对盗窃、入室行窃、机动车盗窃和抢劫比率的影响。这项研究使用了美国1948年至2009年的数据。我们使用未观察到的组件方法来规避与被忽略变量相关的问题。我们发现，这三个宏观经济变量对大多数财产犯罪率有显著的统计影响。然而，综合宏观经济变量，在1960年到1980年代的财产犯罪激增和随后在1990年的下降中，只有不到15%的原因可以解释。在宏观经济变量中，几乎所有的解释力都是由通货膨胀率的变化提供的。
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