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英文文献：North Korean Food Supply And Demand: An Econometric Analysis-《朝鲜粮食供求:计量经济学分析》
英文文献作者：Lee, Young-Jae,Kennedy, P. Lynn,Hilbun, Brian M.
英文文献摘要：
This study simulates North Korean food supply and demand using an econometric regression based upon neo-classical economic theory. In doing so, this study at first describes the autarky condition that exists in the closed economy of North Korea and the relationship between pro-military oriented economic policy and deficiency in the dietary needs required by the average North Korean. This study then quantifies the impact agricultural resources and policy have had on the production of food for the sample period of 1995 to 2008. Results show that food production decreases along with a decrease in agricultural input factors and with the implementation of a more pro-military oriented economic policy. Finally, this study simulates ex ante food balance. In order to meet food demand, the rate at which agricultural input factors are made available should be much more greater than the increasing rate of population, regardless of whether pro-market oriented economic policy reforms are implemented or not. And if a more pro-market approach is implemented by North Korea, the food balance appears to recover more quickly from food deficiency to food surplus given a specific level of agricultural resources.
本研究使用基于新古典经济学理论的计量回归来模拟朝鲜的粮食供求。为此，本研究首先描述了朝鲜封闭经济中存在的自给自足状况，以及亲军事导向的经济政策与朝鲜普通民众饮食需求不足之间的关系。然后，本研究量化了1995年至2008年抽样期间农业资源和政策对粮食生产的影响。结果表明，粮食产量随着农业投入因素的减少和更倾向于军事导向的经济政策的实施而下降。最后，本研究模拟了事前的食物平衡。为了满足粮食需求，提供农业投入因素的比率应远远大于人口的增长率，无论是否执行了以市场为导向的经济政策改革。如果朝鲜采取更亲市场的方式，在特定的农业资源水平下，粮食平衡似乎能更快地从粮食短缺恢复到粮食过剩。
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