英文文献:Weather Effects on Trend, Variance and Distribution of Crop Yield-气候对作物产量趋势、变异和分布的影响
英文文献作者:Yu, Tian,Babcock, Bruce A.
英文文献摘要:
Favorable weather conditions for dryland crop production, including a proper amount of heat and rainfall during the growing season, are critical factors determining yield outcomes. Weather conditions however, are randomly distributed across regions and over time, thus influencing the temporal and geographical patterns of measured crop yield. Failure to account for weather factors when estimating crop yield distributions, time trends or productivity gains can lead to spurious conclusions regarding technology improvement, yield risk and skewness of yield. This paper addresses some limitations in the literature that result from not taking into account weather, and proposes an approach to incorporate weather into modeling yield.
对旱地作物生产有利的天气条件,包括生长季节适当的热量和雨量,是决定产量结果的关键因素。然而,天气条件在不同地区和不同时间随机分布,从而影响实测作物产量的时间和地理格局。在估计作物产量分布、时间趋势或生产力增长时,如果不考虑天气因素,可能会导致关于技术改进、产量风险和产量偏态的错误结论。本文讨论了文献中由于没有考虑天气而导致的一些限制,并提出了一种将天气纳入建模产量的方法。


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