crystal8832 发表于 2018-10-16 19:00
嗯,要么都非平稳且协整要么都平稳。
谢谢你的解答!
还想再问一下,就是今天在论坛里搜了很久,看到有种说法是高铁梅的书里有提到“如果不平稳,即不同阶单整,此时对原序列做协整,若存在协整关系,则可做VAR”的说法。
我现在对原序列用了Johansen协整检验之后(如下)。好像是说明原数据间存在协整关系。
那么此时使用原数据进行VAR建模也是可以的了么?
Sample (adjusted): 2008M09 2017M04
Included observations: 104 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: ER FFR LOGCPIA LOGHS LOGM1 LOGPTI LOGRPP
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 4
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.620332 231.3369 125.6154 0.0000
At most 1 * 0.370699 130.6172 95.75366 0.0000
At most 2 * 0.292149 82.45012 69.81889 0.0035
At most 3 0.194421 46.51582 47.85613 0.0664
At most 4 0.116250 24.03168 29.79707 0.1991
At most 5 0.068070 11.17929 15.49471 0.2007
At most 6 * 0.036320 3.847564 3.841466 0.0498
Trace test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.620332 100.7197 46.23142 0.0000
At most 1 * 0.370699 48.16709 40.07757 0.0050
At most 2 * 0.292149 35.93430 33.87687 0.0280
At most 3 0.194421 22.48414 27.58434 0.1966
At most 4 0.116250 12.85239 21.13162 0.4659
At most 5 0.068070 7.331728 14.26460 0.4507
At most 6 * 0.036320 3.847564 3.841466 0.0498
Max-eigenvalue test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values