20190120【充实计划】第957期

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读790小时      
挑战第三百一十七天   读15页书，完成当日目标

今天学习和阅读约5小时，累计阅读约1615小时。
学习和投资心得：
估值水平的关键因素：一个公司未来十年多少的增长率是合适的呢？使用1-2倍GDP未来十年增长率估值成熟型的优秀企业，用2-3倍GDP的未来十年增长率估值成长型的优秀企业，比较合适作为投资者来说，首要做的是不断的深入研究，确定企业所在的生命周期。企业的生命周期大致可以分为：1）导入期：增长最快，现金流几乎没有，甚至负值。2）成长期：增长较快，现金流转正，且增长最快。3）成熟期：增长较，现金流最丰富但增长也缓慢。4）衰退期：负增长，现金流衰减。导入期的企业，大部分为初创的企业，现金流不断流出，是不产生自由现金流的企业。衰退期的企业，现金流持续减少，是价值持续递减的企业，他们蕴含大量的风险，是属于拍脑门的7米栏的投资范畴，不建议勉强投资。另外，虽然有些质地差特别复杂的企业也在成长和成熟期，但是这些企业投资太难，也不建议勉强投资。强周期性的企业，也非常的难以确定他们的增长率。能不投就不要投。那些弱周期的强品牌的消费和医疗行业的优质企业，是最好估值的3米栏。这符合我的投资原则：选择优秀，就是避免平庸和糟糕。对于成长和成熟阶段的的那些优质企业来说，企业的增长率的参照的基准是什么呢？是GDP增长率。它是国家总体的平均财富增长水平，跑不赢GDP，企业的财富实际上是缩水的。在一个GDP年增长10%的国家里，优秀的企业增长20%是合适和常见的。但是一个6.5%的GDP增长率下，你会发现，即使是最优秀的企业，保持20%的长期增长是非常的难的。鉴于优秀的企业，能获得超过平均的增长率水平，所以我习惯于在估值的时候，使用1-2倍GDP增长率估值成熟型的优秀企业，用2-3倍GDP的增长率估值成长型的优秀企业。因为估值是以10年为基础的，时间足以烫平短期的增长率波动，所以短期的波动，参考意义不大，三十年河东，三十年河西罢了。有的人还在幻想过去的10%的增长率的时代里优秀企业超乎寻常的30%的增长率水平，那个时代，其实已经过去了。面向未来，面向现实。按照现阶段的发展来看，未来的GDP增长率以5%作为基准是合适的。4、 当年可支配现金也是估值的重要因素，是优秀企业才拥有的特性。有些***到极点的好企业，不但没有有息负债，而且有大量的现金留存于企业账户上，这些现金在扣除所有负债后，仍有部分剩余，比如茅台2017年的年报中，扣除所有负债后，还剩下500亿的现金留存于账户上，这相当于股价中的40块，占比股价7%左右，是现实存在的，不用预估和折扣的现金。东阿阿胶也是，将近22亿的现金，折合股价中3.36元是实实在在的存在，占比股价8.6%。虽然现金占比比例不大，但是也有一定影响，相当于企业的压舱石，在股灾或者贸易战的背景下，现金尤其重要。

昨天阅读5小时，累计阅读1855小时

昨日阅读3小时累计阅读133小时

加入充实计划第一天 五条
1. 资料 如何把自己活成一个创业公司？
http://www.sohu.com/a/289202846_99922069
2. 精彩摘录
它创造了什么样的变化？
它更高一层的系统是什么？
是什么使得它能够持续存在？
将节点放到整体的环境之中，去思考它能够起到的意义，向更高的层次归纳、提升，重新给它一个定位 —— 这就是「再定位」（Repositioning）

这就是将自己的工作和技能，向整个团队、向更高的层次去「延展」—— 你未必有足够空间去实践，但你可以通过思考，树立这么一个意识，慢慢去拓展自己所能接触到的领域。不妨尝试者打破「任务」和「工作」的局限，去找到自己职业的「图景」，重新给自己一个「再定位」。
你或许会发现，一切变得豁然开朗。

拓展自己的圈子

在日常的工作、生活之外，尽量去接触不同行业、不同类型的人，哪怕只是简单的交流也好，去弄清楚他们在想什么，烦恼什么，需要什么。很有可能，这其中就潜藏着你的机会。

理解世界的运转

这个世界是由各种各样的系统对接起来组成的。每个系统的内部、对接的地方，多多少少必然存在冗余和不良 —— 这些地方，都是你可以去协调和优化的空间。

所以，不妨问自己：

• 跟我竞争的人是谁？
• 他们在哪些方面是强项？
• 我有哪些东西，是他们（可能）不具备的？
  

3. 思考

3.1 底层逻辑，定位，易经凶吉全看站位，位对了，逢凶化吉。
可以理解成对自己的定位，对事情的定位，对周围合作者的定位，对形势的判断和所处的位置，对未来的定位

3.2 拓展圈子和理解世界运转相辅相成
洞察事情才能对圈子里的人带来价值，圈子中的交流再帮助理解世界
闭门学习与尬聊相结合，独立思考与开会相结合


4. 昨日阅读5h
CFA 3h
业务2h
基于forest app统计


5. 累计5h


昨日专注：收心，信心清净，既生实相
今日鸡汤：相信持续积累的力量


～可把我牛b坏了 插会儿腰

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/SP4wSGuejHOac7sdLtrRPA

当AI可以取悦幼儿，与机器人共同生活的那天还远吗

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nC1bAF_PSoEazfKiYmDjew

李录：价值投资在中国的展望

昨日阅读1小时。 总阅读时间87小时
Book of Value - The Fine Art of Investing Wisely 2016(Anurag Sharma)
https://bbs.pinggu.org/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=6303889&from^^uid=109341(Page 154-175)
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Seek for high yield, stable and strong growing investment
Remember that our baseline assumption when evaluating stocks is that the markets are pricing them more or less correctly. That is, we write the base expectation as No: Price = Value. Based on our inability to refute the Walmart undervaluation thesis as in the previous chapter, our investment thesis for Walmart still stands as
T: Price << Value
So, we tentatively accept our original hunch that the stock may be an attractive opportunity and now subject our thesis to further disconfirmation analysis based on additional financial data.
Note that here we are using a nonstatistical variant of Popper’s method. In the context of the hard sciences, we typically first develop a null hypothesis based on whatever theory (or belief) we may be testing and then go about trying to reject the null using carefully collated data. In investment analysis of the sort we are doing here, every situation is one-off, and we rarely, if ever, have repeat observations when evaluating a single investment. Instead of using formal statistical
techniques, therefore, we use the broader principle of negation to make cautious data-driven  judgments. Note also that, technically, we are supposed to try to reject the null because it embodies the belief we have about the truth in a given situation. Since the investment thesis
is a hunch or emerging belief about the appropriateness of a particular stock or asset, it acquires the character of a null, and that is, therefore, what we try to refute. In the next stage of trying to refute the investment thesis, we formalize three subtheses and evaluate those using additional batteries of empirical tests. Note that we examine these subtheses after we have already found ourselves unable to refute the main investment thesis using the implied growth rates. If any of the tests succeed in refuting one or more subthesis, we will have cast doubt on our original hunch
and will then have to carry that doubt into all subsequent analyses. If we are unable to refute any of the three subtheses, we gain greater confidence in the main thesis—and can proceed to qualitative evaluations (discussed in later chapters).
First, with the yield tests, we ask whether the company in question is generating sufficient earnings. We try to refute the notion that the immediate return we would receive from following through on the thesis is better than putting our money in the bank or in corporate or treasury bonds, or perhaps in another stock. To that end, these tests require that we compute earnings, cash flow, and dividend yields.
Second, with the stability tests, we try to refute the notion that the past performance of the company was stable. That is, we question the ability of the company to continue delivering the expected results through our investment time horizon. We assess stability using patterns
in the historical financial and operating ratios.
Finally, with the strength tests, we try to refute the notion that the company is financially strong. We assess the financial strength of the company from an evaluation of its balance sheet, using a series of leverage and liquidity ratios.
Cash Flow Yields
By accounting convention, the $5.05 EPS are the company’s best estimate after it has deducted all expenses and taxes from the revenues. These earnings need to be translated using additional accounting conventions to see how much cash the company actually generated. Of the cash earnings, the company usually puts some back into the business in order to maintain the quality of assets and the ability to continue generating earnings. The remaining cash earnings, or free cash flow, then rightfully belong to the shareholders even if the company decides not to distribute them. The company may use the cash it retains for other purposes such as retiring debt, repurchasing shares in the open market, or making investments in new growth opportunities. These free cash flows are theoretically the correct dividend owed to you as a shareholder and, therefore, the correct yields for analysis.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
- though, we can operationalize the process for the quantitative evaluation of stocks and either cast doubt on or develop a degree of confidence in the investment thesis. Starting in the next chapter, we go beyond quantitative analysis to develop a systematic process for further trying to disconfirm the thesis using qualitative information. The ability to make sound subjective judgments about the defining narratives of the companies under scrutiny will be of particular importance.
The amount of information you will encounter is likely to be overwhelming. You will quickly learn that the big problem of analysis is not the lack of information but too much of it; this information is also likely to be unstructured and unorganized. It’s easy to get lost in the mass of data that companies are required to report, with reporting itself sometimes becoming convoluted and confusing. Moreover, there is problem that the reliability of information may not be good for all companies in particular for those in HK or China. As there are still many of the listed companies manipulate their reporting data.
-        Instead of quantitatively refuting a clearly articulated investment thesis, we are looking for qualitative or narrative data that may help disconfirm the investment thesis. Because the judgments made in doing so are based on personal interpretations of qualitative data, you may not be able to clearly “hard” refute the thesis. The intent here is still to cast doubt to such an extent that disconfirmation is all but obvious.

-        The approach still is to interpret conservatively and to disconfirm the emerging beliefs based (by this time) on the previously executed but unsuccessful quantitative tests designed to refute the investment thesis. The skills necessary for the next stage of analysis favor journalists over mathematicians, poets over quants. The objective of the qualitative analysis is to try to cast doubt on the defining narratives of the company. We will try to do so on three broad fronts.

-        First, if we have thus far been unable to refute the thesis on financial strength, we now want to use the quantitative data reported in the footnotes to the financial statements (as opposed to those in the tables) to disconfirm that the company has few or no obligations other than interest-bearing debt that is visible in the balance sheet. We must also evaluate such data to make a qualitative inference about the operations of the company. We want to check that not just debt but the overall financial burdens of the company are manageable and that its assets are in good order.
-        Second, if we have thus far been unable to clearly refute the thesis using the stability tests, we now want to try to disconfirm the ability of the company to continue on its historical trajectory. As such, we try to discredit the business model of the company and question its ability to deliver consistent performance and growth in the near future.
-        Finally, if we have thus far been unable to refute the company using the yield tests, we now want to disconfirm the proposition that the company is in an opportunity-rich environment and that it has suitable leadership in place to sustain the business and navigate through the uncertainties that inevitably lie ahead.

1、文章链接：https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3466619
2、摘录：“投资你得考虑宏大命题，做一些思维训练。有人说市场总在不均衡状态，有时候偏离大有时候偏离小，有人说价钱总是围绕内在价值在晃动。这是两种思维框架，但是你得有这个能力去包容这两种完全相反的观念，看到问题的复杂性，不能把问题简化到只剩下白猫黑猫这种状态。”

最初投资美股，徐英武的动力是挣钱，解决温饱问题，求的是身体自由。2009年底之后，他坚信自己“以后会非常有钱”。在资金量超过1000万美元之前，他觉得自己平均一年20-30%“绝对没问题”，但要控制自己的欲望，不要奢谈每年40-50%的复合收益率。

如果将来钱多了，徐英武会尝试像巴菲特一样进入董事会去影响企业决策。“不需要太多钱，有的公司市值100个million，大概10个million就可以影响了。”

徐英武：“我强调要娶一个聪明的媳妇，而不是漂亮的媳妇，是因为智商大部分是天生的，而且不像外貌，可以后期改造，假期去趟韩国就可以解决大部分的问题。既然智商由基因决定，随着基因技术的进步，那些期待出人头地的群众，一定会改造自己后代的基因，于是“超人宝宝”不久就会出生。这些孩子极其聪明，外加健康漂亮、富有爱心。他们5年级的语文作业是这样的：晚上6-7点通读红楼梦的前40回，从心理学角度，对比贾宝玉和哈姆雷特成长环境对他们价值观形成的影响。数学作业是这样的：晚上7-8点手工计算5个黎曼猜想的非平凡零点，思考这些非平凡零点和素数分布的关系。 代代改造后，大概再过500年，他们就会和我们普通人产生生殖隔离，也就是说，他们已经不是智人了，而是另外一个叫“超人”的物种。”

3、感悟：投资即需要形成自己的思想，完全模仿、学习别人绝对不会成功；每一个人都有适合自己的投资方式，但在寻找此方式的过程中，读书、思考都不可缺少。投资大师有其独到的地方，阅读经典可以减少弯路。

4、昨天阅读：0.5小时。

5、共阅读：3小时。

昨日阅读2小时，累计阅读659小时