How to Pick Quality Shares: A three-step process for selecting profitable stocks
by Oakley Phil (Author)
About the Author
John G. Glenn is Senior Lecturer of International Relations and International Political Economy at the University of Southampton, UK.
About this book
How To Pick Quality Shares provides a three-step process for analysing company financial information to find good investments. The three steps boil down to finding quality companies, avoiding dangerous or risky companies, and not paying too much for companies’ shares. Applying the in-depth techniques described here will give investors a better understanding of companies, and an edge over other investors, including professional investors and analysts.
Phil Oakley, an experienced investment analyst and private investor, guides the reader step-by-step through these three stages:
- For the first step, he shows how to identify the kind of high-quality companies that are capable of being profitable investments over the long term. Important themes are how much a company earns on the money it invests, reliable measures of profit and the importance of cash flow.
- Next, he shows how to spot the dangers and risks that could lead to a company being a bad investment. Here the focus is on how to analyse debt, in particular hidden debt and pension fund deficits.
- Lastly, he shows how to value a company’s shares and determine what is a reasonable price to pay to invest in that company. Phil shows why some common shortcuts to valuing shares are not very useful and how to use cash profits to value shares more reliably.
At each stage, Phil explains where the investor needs to look in company financial statements to get the information they need and how to analyse this information. Illustrative examples of analysis of real company financial statements are used throughout. If you have a company’s latest annual report and its current share price you have all the information you need to be a successful investor. How To Pick Quality Shares shows you how.
Contents
INTRODUCTION: My approach to investing
PART 1 – HOW TO FIND QUALITY COMPANIES
1. Profits
1. Sales and profit history
2. Profit margin
2. A Company’s Interest Rate
Return on capital employed (ROCE)
DuPont analysis
The company report
3. Introducing Free Cash Flow
Why profits and cash flow are not the same number
The importance of free cash flow for investors
How to calculate free cash flow
How companies produce lots of free cash flow
4. Advanced Free Cash Flow Analysis
1. How do you know if a company is spending enough?
2. Is negative free cash flow always bad?
3. Combining ROCE and free cash flow: CROCI
4. Free cash flow per share
5. Checking the safety of dividend payments
6. When free cash flow may not be what it seems
7. Manipulation of free cash flow
Part 1 Summary – How to Find Quality Companies
PART 2 – HOW TO AVOID DANGEROUS COMPANIES
5. The Dangers of Debt
The risk of debt: shareholders get paid last
Understanding financial gearing
Measuring a company’s debt
Using debt ratios to analyse companies
Different types of debt
When does the debt have to be paid back?
When larger debts are not a problem
6. How Debt can Fool You
Financial engineering
7. Hidden Debts
How to analyse companies with hidden debts
Domino’s and its hidden debts
How to analyse a company with large rental agreements
The impact on ROCE
Be wary of sale and leasebacks
8. The Dangers of Pension Fund Deficits
Types of corporate pension schemes
BT’s final salary pension scheme
Identifying big pension fund deficits
Pension fund deficits and the investor
Part 2 Summary – How to Avoid Dangerous Companies
PART 3 – HOW TO VALUE A COMPANY’S SHARES
9. The Basics of Share Valuation
The fair value of a share
Don’t use the PE ratio
10. Calculating a Company’s Cash Profits
Free cash flow may not be the best measure for valuing companies
How to calculate a company’s cash profits
11. Using Cash Profits to Value Shares
1. Cash yield or interest rate
2. Earnings power value (EPV)
3. Setting a maximum price
The importance of growth
Final thoughts on valuation – can quality be more important than price?
Part 3 Summary – How to Value Shares
APPENDICES
Appendix 1 – The Power of Lease-Adjusted ROCE
Appendix 2 – FTSE 100 Data
Appendix 3 – High-Quality Companies and Shareholder Returns (2007–2016)
AG BARR
British American Tobacco
Cranswick
Dignity
Diploma
Domino’s Pizza
Fidessa
InterContinental Hotels
Paddy Power Betfair
Reckitt Benckiser
RELX
Rightmove
Sage
Spirax-Sarco
Unilever
Appendix 4 – FTSE All-Share Sector ROCE Analysis
Appendix 5 – Glossary
Appendix 6 – Where to Find Data
Length: 222 pages
Publisher: Harriman House (May 22, 2017)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 9780857195340
ISBN-13: 978-0857195340
ASIN: 0857195344