China's Long March to Gas Price Freedom：Price Reform in the People's Republic

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2018-11 China's Long March to Gas Price Freedom：Price Reform in the People's Republic 82页

牛津大学

Contents
Preface .......................................................................................................................................................... ii
Contents ....................................................................................................................................................... iii
Figures ......................................................................................................................................................... iv
Tables ........................................................................................................................................................... iv
Glossary ........................................................................................................................................................ v
Introduction .................................................................................................................................................. 6
1. Overall Chinese gas sector reform process .......................................................................................... 8
1.1 Five-Year Energy Plan .......................................................................................................................... 8
1.2 Increasing gas use to reduce pollution ................................................................................................. 8
1.3 Infrastructure access ........................................................................................................................... 16
1.4 Upstream and downstream reform ..................................................................................................... 18
1.5 Development of gas hubs ................................................................................................................... 18
1.6 The challenge from renewables .......................................................................................................... 20
2. The need for gas price reform in China ............................................................................................... 22
2.1 Overview ............................................................................................................................................. 22
2.2 Industry profitability ............................................................................................................................. 23
2.3 Production outlook .............................................................................................................................. 26
2.4 Import dependency ............................................................................................................................. 29
2.5 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 36
3. China’s gas price reform process ........................................................................................................ 37
3.1 Early reform steps – modest price rises .............................................................................................. 37
3.2 Mid-2000s reform – a simplified approach .......................................................................................... 38
3.3 2011 – the move to netback pricing .................................................................................................... 38
3.4 2013 – two-tier pricing ......................................................................................................................... 39
3.5 Recent implementation of the fundamental principles ........................................................................ 40
July 2013 ............................................................................................................................................... 41
September 2014 .................................................................................................................................... 41
April 2015 .............................................................................................................................................. 41
November 2015 ..................................................................................................................................... 42
September 2017 .................................................................................................................................... 43
June 2018 .............................................................................................................................................. 46
3.6 Changes to end-user prices ................................................................................................................ 47
3.7 Residential prices ................................................................................................................................ 49
3.8 Seasonal pricing ................................................................................................................................. 53
3.9 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 57
4. How China’s gas pricing policy influences demand .......................................................................... 58
4.1 The impact of pricing on demand ........................................................................................................ 58
4.2 Recent Chinese gas demand growth .................................................................................................. 60
2017 outturn .......................................................................................................................................... 60
2018 outlook .......................................................................................................................................... 60
4.3 The longer-term outlook for Chinese gas demand .............................................................................. 63
4.4 What to look out for ............................................................................................................................. 66
4.5 Demand and price seasonality ............................................................................................................ 67
4.6 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 68
5. Regional price and demand variations ................................................................................................ 69
5.1 Regional pricing variations .................................................................................................................. 69
5.2 Provincial demand and supply/demand balances ............................................................................... 71
5.3 GDP and consumers’ ability to pay ..................................................................................................... 73
5.4 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................................ 74
6. Issues outstanding with gas pricing policy in China ......................................................................... 75
6.1 Positive developments to date ............................................................................................................ 75
6.2 Outstanding issues ............................................................................................................................. 76
7. Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................ 78
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................... 80

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