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【出版时间及名称】：2010年英国电信行业前景展望
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：124
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Outlook for 2010 ................................................................................ 5
Executive summary...................................................................................................................5
The Q4 2009 telco rally never came .........................................................................................7
But telco underperformance not unusual at this stage in the cycle ..........................................9
Stock drivers in 2009...............................................................................................................10
Top line growth weaker in 2009 but set to recover in 2010....................................................13
EM risk trade to remain influential ..........................................................................................16
Risks remain around the usual FY guidance event..................................................................17
Valuation ................................................................................................................................18
Top line: improving growth to lead to sector re-rating ............... 19
It should get better from here.................................................................................................19
Late cycle recovery of mobile voice with the economy..........................................................20
The economy moves from a headwind to a tailwind in 2010..................................................22
And who stands to gain most from better news? ..................................................................24
Contribution from mobile data set to improve ........................................................................25
MTR pressure relatively stable through 2010 .........................................................................27
Roaming, biggest cuts behind us but still a small drag...........................................................29
Mobile capex: operators still in control......................................... 30
Operators are still in control of capex .....................................................................................30
VOD data traffic information helps reassure on capital intensity ............................................32
Datacards driving the big increase in capacity ........................................................................33
Applying some theory to the debate.......................................................................................34
Recent trends in the drivers of capital intensity ......................................................................35
Current capex could allow a significant boost to top line growth ...........................................36
Dividends still covered even at much higher capex levels ......................................................38
Sector trends update ...................................................................... 41
Overview................................................................................................................................41
Organic revenue trends for the sector ....................................................................................41
Trends in European mobile revenues and KPIs.......................................................................42
Mobile service revenue trends across the big 5 markets .......................................................44
Trends in European fixed voice/internet revenues and KPIs ...................................................45
Fixed broadband market data..................................................................................................48
More cash to owners/M&A ............................................................ 49
Increasing returns or increasing M&A?...................................................................................49
Trends in leverage...................................................................................................................49
Liquidity – no problems in 2010 even if credit markets closed ...............................................50
Shareholder remuneration.......................................................................................................50
M&A – scope for more in-market consolidation in 2010.........................................................51
Spectrum auctions ..................................................................................................................52
Sovereign CDS analysis flags country risk volatility .................... 54
New analysis: how do telco CDS spreads move vs. stock prices?.........................................54
Where does the bulk of sovereign-CDS spreads come from?................................................56
Mind the gap between CDS spreads and stock prices ...........................................................56
Table of Contents (Cont´d)
Company Pages ............................................................................... 67
Belgacom.......................................................................................... 68
BT Group PLC................................................................................... 70
Cable & Wireless.............................................................................. 72
Colt Telecom Group S.A. ................................................................ 74
Deutsche Telekom........................................................................... 76
Elisa Corporation ............................................................................. 78
Fastweb............................................................................................ 80
France Telecom................................................................................ 82
Freenet AG ....................................................................................... 84
Iliad Group ....................................................................................... 86
KPN ................................................................................................... 88
Mobistar ........................................................................................... 90
OTE ................................................................................................... 92
Portugal Telecom............................................................................. 94
QSC AG............................................................................................. 96
Swisscom......................................................................................... 98
Telecom Italia................................................................................. 100
Telefonica....................................................................................... 102
Telekom Austria............................................................................. 104
Telenet Group ................................................................................ 106
Telenor ASA ................................................................................... 108
TeliaSonera .................................................................................... 110
United Internet .............................................................................. 112
Versatel .......................................................................................... 114
Vodafone Group Plc ...................................................................... 116
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