2010年美国银行业前景展望

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国银行业前景展望
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：82
        【目录或简介】：
Midcap Banks
Stronger 2010 Outlook for the
Midcap Banks; Construction
Banks Should Outperform
Recovery for the midcap banks in 2010: We believe
the valuations for most midcap banks could post a
sizable recovery in 2010. The key assumptions of our
thesis are: 1) construction losses will decline materially
given that banks will have recognized 77% of total
construction losses by the end of 2009, 2) an increase in
the Fed Funds rate to 200 bps by 1Q11 will benefit most
of the banks in our coverage universe given their
short-term asset sensitivity, and 3) the expectation for
more efficient uses of capital will benefit returns on
equity beginning in earnest in 2012.
Lower construction losses trump rising commercial
losses: We are keenly aware that rising commercial
credit losses will be a headwind to the group (see Exhibit
10). However, valuations for most of the midcap banks
more than reflect the expected credit losses we
anticipate over the next several years. In addition, with
the economy showing signs of recovery, combined with
the recent cross-asset class work we completed with our
REITs, structured credit, and financials team, we believe
the probability of our bear-case scenario is declining,
which we view as a positive for the midcap banks.
Increasing our price targets: We are increasing our
price target for the majority of our banks due to higher
normalized EPS estimates and a lower discount rate.
We now see 17% 12-month upside to our group.
4Q09 results will be difficult, but the focus will be
more on the 2010 outlook: We expect 4Q09 to be a
difficult quarter for the midcap banks, although market
expectations are already low and there are likely to be
fewer surprises than previous quarters. We expect
investors to focus more on banks’ commentary
regarding credit and revenue trends in 2010 as opposed
to the actual 4Q09 results.

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关键词：行业前景 前景展望 美国银行 银行业 Construction 美国 前景 展望 银行业