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The business of value investing – Six essential elements to buying companies like Warren Buffett- Charlie Tian 2009
https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-695143-1-1.html (Page 195-201)
Invest Significantly at the Maximum Point of Pessimism
阅读到的有价值的内容段落摘录
Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful………….Warren Buffett
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell………………………..John Templeton
To succeed in investing over the long run, you must be prepared to look stupid in the short run. …………………………………….Mason Hawkins
We now come to arguably one of the most defining characteristics of a successful investment philosophy. As to be expected, buying during periods of pessimism is also one of the most difficult things to do because it requires the investor to go against the crowd psychology. It requires the investor to do the opposite of what the majority is doing. It requires the investor to go at it alone. Doing these things goes against most other conventional aspects of society and human nature. Our minds and our lives are geared toward accepting the overall consensus. Our president is elected by a majority vote; victory in sports is determined by the collaboration of the team; and important decisions are made after consultation and agreements of the members involved. In these instances and many others, there is tremendous value in going with the group, or crowd. However, when it comes to investment, there are going to be moments when an investor is out on his own and his handling of the pressures that come with being the solo man out will be crucial. Before proceeding to detail the benefits of purchasing securities during moments of maximum pessimism, it’s instructive to aggregate the requirements that have been outlined so far for a value-oriented intelligent investment philosophy. The ability to make a significant investment in a security at time of distress and uncertainty is very a tough thing to do because it requires a high degree of mental fortitude.
However, the difficulty in this decision is significantly reduced when you have established the fundamental framework to successful value investing that has been outlined previously. First and foremost, you must develop a sound investment philosophy. This book wholeheartedly favors the philosophy established over 70 years ago by Ben Graham and his colleague David Dodd at Columbia University. It simply states that investments are made when thorough research, capital preservation, and satisfactory returns are anchors upon which the investment decision rests. Decades later, the teachings and philosophies of Graham and Dodd, promoted by the success of Warren Buffett and several others, came to be known as value investing. Today, value investing is simply the process of buying assets for significantly less than what they are worth. The process of investing in bargain securities provides the margin of safety. The margin of safety provides room for error, imprecise estimates, bad luck, and shelter from the surprises or shocks of the economy and stock market. More important, value investing emphasizes the process first and the outcome second. According to value investor Seth Klarman, who has been producing market-beating returns for nearly three decades, the requisites for value investing may be beyond one’s control: “While it might seem that anyone can be a value investor, the essential characteristics of this type of investor- patience, discipline, and risk aversion- may well be genetically determined.” What Klarman is suggesting is that when you first learn of the value investing approach, it either takes hold of you or it doesn’t. You’re either disciplined and patient or you’re not. You either view the stock market as a long - term wealth- creating mechanism or you don’t. Many can learn and recite the value rhetoric with the greatest of ease. Tell people that your investment approach entails buying 50-cent dollars and investing with a high margin of safety . . . and presto, you’re a value investor. Unfortunately, merely saying something doesn’t actually mean you are doing it.
阅读到的有价值信息的自我思考点评感想
However, I will add that if you really are committed to investing intelligently, the first course of action is to have a true understanding of the value investing philosophy. Second, you must have a good search strategy. There are tens of thousands of publicly traded securities all over the world at investors’ disposal. Knowing where and how to look are of crucial importance in order for investors to maximize their time. Ultimately, the more securities you look at, the greater your opportunity for finding a bargain investment. Understand that, ultimately, if you desire to pursue security investing as a profession, there is no short cut with regard to a search strategy. Even when the general level of equity prices are elevated, serious value investors are diligently researching companies and constantly learning so that they can more knowledgeable when the next opportunity of bargain hunting arises. Today, investors have the added advantage of being able to search Securities and Exchange Commission documents via the Internet and see what other well - regarded investors are buying and selling.
An effective search strategy that includes regularly checking up on the quarterly portfolio holdings of more experienced investors can be an excellent source of ideas. Investing is a painstaking process and will reward those willing to pursue it with a degree of intensity. After your search strategy has produced worthwhile ideas, then comes the process of learning about the company and its operations, assessing the quality and competency of management, and valuing the business. Obviously, this is the crucial step in the process because investors cannot go any further without determining what the business in worth. Remember that business valuation is part art and part science and that all values are estimates. By definition, valuation process incorporates future operating results extrapolated from the past performance of the business. Because the business world and the stock market are both vulnerable to a host of shocks, the valuation is always an estimate of intrinsic value; thus the need for a margin of safety - investing only in those securities that are selling for substantially less than intrinsic value. The ultimate value of a business rests on how much future cash flow it can produce. The intrinsic value of business is the sum of those future cash flows discounted back to the present at an appropriate discount rate combined with an appropriate terminal value. Of course, a business also may be valued based on liquidation value or its value to a private buyer, but these scenarios should be relied on only when compelling analytical data justifies the likelihood of either type of event occurring.
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