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英文文献：Embedding a Field Experiment in Contingent Valuation to Measure Context-Dependent Risk Preferences: An Application to Wildfire Risk-在条件估值中嵌入一个野外实验来测量环境相关的风险偏好:野火风险的一个应用
英文文献作者：Rollins, Kimberly S.,Kobayashi, Mimako
英文文献摘要：
This paper contributes towards the development of an approach that would generate welfare measures that accommodate non-expected utility risk preferences. Combining the merits of elicitation approaches used in field experiments with contingent valuation, we embed an experimental design that systematically varies probabilities and losses across a survey sample in a willingness to pay elicitation format, where a hypothetical situation is described that closely resembles the actual policy context. We apply the proposed elicitation and estimation approaches to estimate the risk preferences of a representative homeowner who faces probabilistic wildfire risks and an investment option that reduces losses due to wildfire. Based on prospect theory, we estimate parameters of probability weighting, risk preferences and use individual characteristics as covariates for these parameters and as utility shifters. We find that risk preferences are consistent with non-expected utility theory. We also find that the use of individual characteristics as utility shifters, as is standard non-market valuation, attenuates some of the effects of the probability weights. Prior experience with wildfire is associated with risk preferences that are closer to expected utility theory.
这篇论文有助于发展一种方法，将产生福利措施，容纳非预期的公用事业风险偏好。结合现场实验中使用的启发式方法和条件估值的优点，我们嵌入了一个实验设计，系统地改变概率和损失在一个调查样本中支付意愿启发式格式，其中假设的情况被描述，接近实际的政策背景。我们应用所提出的启发式和估计方法来估计一个面临概率野火风险的代表性房主的风险偏好和一个减少野火损失的投资选项。基于前景理论，我们对概率加权、风险偏好等参数进行估计，并将个体特征作为这些参数的协变量和效用转换因子。我们发现风险偏好与非预期效用理论是一致的。我们还发现，使用个人特征作为效用转移者，就像标准的非市场估值，衰减了一些概率权重的影响。野火的经验与风险偏好有关，而风险偏好更接近于预期效用理论。
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