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摩根斯坦利对比亚迪和高盛对百度的分析报告（英文）
COMPANY UPDATE
Baidu.com, Inc. (BIDU)
Buy
We still expect Baidu to take material revenue share from google.cn
What's changed
Following our Jan. 12 note “Potential Google China exit could benefit
Baidu a lot, Tencent a little”, plus Google’s results announcement,
investors have asked whether Google might retain google.cn, or transfer
its China business to google.com. We believe Baidu will pick up much of
Google’s in-China search revenue, and BIDU is not priced for this potential.
(1) Google reiterated on its results call that it is no longer willing to censor
search results in China. Under the terms of a 2005 license agreement, this
may logically result in google.cn’s local partner losing its license to
provide search results and sell advertising.
(2) We recently reduced our 2010 Google gross revenue estimate by $400
mn for loss of in-China advertising. The $400 mn represented our estimate
for search advertising by China companies in China; we already assumed
that Google maintains other activities, such as selling advertising to China
companies outside China, contextual advertising in China, and Android.
(3) The China government has previously blocked google.com in China for
weeks at a time, and YouTube.com for almost a year. As such, we see risk
that the government could take similar action if Google exits google.cn
with great drama, so we doubt advertisers would be able to shift google.cn
spend to google.com.
Implications
We believe Baidu could capture two-thirds of Google’s China revenue,
rapidly adding about 30% to its revenue run rate and more to its earnings.
Google “needs” China less than widely perceived; selling 1 mn Nexus One
smartphones in 2010 would compensate for foregone China revenue.
Valuation
Our 6-month DCF-driven price target for Baidu is $500, which does not give
explicit credit for Google exiting China, because it has not yet done so.
Key risks
Risks include poor 1Q2010 revenue guidance due to Baidu Professional.
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