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Impacts of lower oil consumption on world oil prices
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. STUDY OBJECTIVES ........................................................................4
2. MODELLING ....................................................................................5
2.1. POLES: a general description........................................................................................... 5
2.1.1. Structure of the model .................................................................................... 6
2.1.2. Electricity and Transformation System module ............................................... 7
2.1.3. Hydrogen production and use.......................................................................... 7
2.1.4. International Energy Prices module ................................................................ 7
2.1.5. Inputs ............................................................................................................. 8
2.1.6. Outputs ........................................................................................................... 8
2.2. Transport module .................................................................................................................. 8
2.2.1. Modelling the road transport sector ................................................................ 8
2.2.2. Integrating emission targets for new vehicles ................................................ 9
2.2.3. CO2 emissions............................................................................................... 10
2.2.4. Assumptions.................................................................................................. 10
2.2.5. Update of data............................................................................................... 11
3. RESULTS .......................................................................................12
3.1. Europe : road transport and energy consumption.............................................. 12
3.1.1. Vehicle consumption ..................................................................................... 12
3.1.2. Car fleet composition .................................................................................... 12
3.1.3. CO2 emission profiles.................................................................................... 13
3.1.4. Oil consumption ............................................................................................ 14
3.1.5. Energy mix .................................................................................................... 15
3.2. Impact on European imports......................................................................................... 16
4. IMPACT ON WORLD OIL PRICES AND EUROPE’S ENERGY BILL......19
4.1 International oil prices.................................................................................. 19
4.2 European energy bill ..................................................................................... 21
5. POTENTIAL CRITICISMS ...............................................................24
5.1 Methodology............................................................................................................................... 24
5.2 Technological options............................................................................................................ 24
5.3 Policies.......................................................................................................................................... 24
6 CONCLUSIONS ..............................................................................25
APPENDIX 1: MODELLING THE CAR FLEET.............................................26
APPENDIX 2: DETAILED RESULTS..........................................................27
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