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THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SUCCESSFUL TRADING Behavioural Strategies for Profitability -197页
THE PSYCHOLOGY OF SUCCESSFUL TRADING Behavioural Strategies for Profitability -197页
CONTENTS
Acknowledgements viii
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Outline Of Book 8
2 Beating the Market 11
3 Theory of Mind 24
3.1 Better Traders Have Better Theory Of Mind 24
3.2 How Theory Of Mind Works 28
4 Belief-Formation Biases I 37
4.1 Belief Perseverance Bias And Correlation 37
4.2 Representativeness Heuristic 40
4.3 Rhyme As Reason Effect 49
4.4 Availability Heuristic 53
4.5 The Gambler’s Fallacy 68
5 Belief-Formation Biases II 74
5.1 Confirmation Bias 74
5.2 Clustering Illusion 83
5.3 Position Effect 85
5.4 Conjunction Fallacy 89
5.5 Hindsight Bias And The Antifragile 91
5.5.1 The Antifragile And Options 101
6 Quasi-Economic Biases 107
6.1 Certainty Effect 107
6.2 Reflection Effect 111
6.3 Isolation Effect 114
6.4 Endowment Effect 116
6.5 Conclusions 118
7 Social Biases I 122
7.1 The ‘Curse Of Knowledge’ 122
7.1.1 The Advantages Of Disadvantages 125
7.2 Dunning-Kruger Effect And Expertise 130
7.3 False Consensus Effect 140
7.4 Conformity Bias 142
8 Social Biases II 149
8.1 Fundamental Attribution Error 149
8.2 Halo Effect 156
8.3 Self-Presentation Bias And Over-Confidence 159
8.3.1 Over-Confidence, Or Why Females Are Better
Traders 166
Bibliography 176
Index 186
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