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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国光伏行业展望
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：59
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Investment thesis .............................................................................. 3
Outlook – DejaVu? ....................................................................................................................3
DB Global Solar Energy Research Team ...................................................................................4
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................4
Supply / Demand update.................................................................. 5
Demand – solar PV installation trends and outlook ...................................................................5
Supply – structural oversupply will persist................................................................................9
Supply and demand – no way to avoid a structural oversupply ..............................................12
Module price and cost..................................................................... 14
The precipitous decline is largely done, but there is more to go ............................................14
Cost and margin structure of c-Si solar PV modules ...............................................................15
Solar PV module ASP outlook through 2010...........................................................................17
Regional incentives ......................................................................... 21
Incentives continue to be the primary driver...........................................................................21
Comparative analysis of FIT rates among EU solar PV markets..............................................22
Germany ................................................................................................................................26
France ....................................................................................................................................32
Italy ........................................................................................................................................34
Greece ...................................................................................................................................35
Czech Republic .......................................................................................................................36
Ontario, Canada ......................................................................................................................37
United States ..........................................................................................................................38
China......................................................................................................................................38
Potential disconnects...................................................................... 40
Revenue: consensus forecasting ~37% y/y growth in 2010 ..................................................40
Valuation: revenue growth, P/E, EV/EBIDTA ...........................................................................42
Discounting an uncertain year: quantifying potential disconnects ..........................................43
Relative impact .......................................................................................................................44
Industry evolution – trends that will accelerate in 2010 ..........................................................45
US – coverage stocks ...................................................................... 47
First Solar (Hold), $125 price target ........................................................................................47
Canadian Solar (Hold), $22 price target...................................................................................49
SunPower ...............................................................................................................................50
Evergreen Solar.......................................................................................................................51
Energy Conversion Devices ....................................................................................................52
Coverage company stocks......................................................................................................53
Companies mentioned............................................................................................................54
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