建银国际 中国保险业研究2010

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Table of Contents
Search for elixir of life ..................................................................................................................................................1
Summary......................................................................................................................................................................3
Valuations ....................................................................................................................................................................4
Appraisal value approach for life insurers ...............................................................................................................4
Gordon Growth valuation for non-life insurers.........................................................................................................9
Market structure......................................................................................................................................................... 11
Insurance penetration........................................................................................................................................... 11
Market share.........................................................................................................................................................14
Favourable macro conditions ...............................................................................................................................16
Impact of new accounting rules .............................................................................................................................21
Growth outlook and drivers........................................................................................................................................23
Transition from ‘wants’ to ‘needs’..........................................................................................................................23
Pension reform .....................................................................................................................................................24
Non-life growth benefit from car sales ...................................................................................................................25
Capitalisation of insurers ......................................................................................................................................26
Profitability drivers......................................................................................................................................................29
Positive effect from 2009 product-mix restructuring ..............................................................................................29
Investment liberalisation .......................................................................................................................................31
Improved discipline in non-life sector ....................................................................................................................34
China Taiping Insurance Holdings (966 HK)...............................................................................................................36
Ping An Insurance (2318 HK) ....................................................................................................................................45
China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)............................................................................................................................53
China Life Insurance (2628 HK) ................................................................................................................................62
PICC Property and Casualty (2328 HK) .....................................................................................................................70
Appendix: Valuation methodology ..............................................................................................................................76

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关键词：中国保险业 中国保险 保险业 Methodology Structuring 中国 研究 国际 保险业