计量能不能揭示因果关系

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还是只能提示相关关系。接触到的一些方法，如时序中的格兰杰因果，联立方程 ，面板数据中的时序信息有助于分离出因果关系。DID对treatment效应的分析。

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关键词：因果关系 treatment treat 格兰杰因果 联立方程 计量 因果关系 揭示

毫无疑问，这个问题又回到了计量统计这个学科对现实生活的作用与本质，计量的作用之一就是为了定量地揭示因果关系，但是具体到科学机理上的解释只能由科学研究才能做到，因此揭示只是从抽象到具体地展示，而揭示就需要更为客观的科学依据了。

更何况有些时候，计量数据上的一些巧合会产生误导

不能。因果关系需要实验数据。

因果循环,何来因何来过

鸡先还是蛋先?
小孩子的身高是由于他家的一棵树决定的吗?

I think In case you manipulate one factor and fix all other factors to observe the result, you might conclude that the change in the factor is the cause of the result. Perhaps this is why experimental design is so important.

Is there any different opinion?

goodbody 发表于 2010-2-28 01:14
I think In case you manipulate one factor and fix all other factors to observe the result, you might conclude that the change in the factor is the cause of the result. Perhaps this is why experimental design is so important.

Is there any different opinion?

"Perhaps this is why experimental design is so important." It is true. In that case, analysis would be much simpler.

But unfortunately, a lot of analysis cannot be put under the experimental design framework. Even in a simple medical research project like smoking it is immoral to force people  to smoke. Most of social and ecinomic study data are observational. This makes the analysis mush more complicated, since the observed data are the results of individual rational behavior. So the data itself is sort of "contaminated" under the view of  experimental design.  It is truncated, self-selected, etc. That comes the major difference between statistics and econometrics.

goodbody 发表于 2010-2-28 01:14
I think In case you manipulate one factor and fix all other factors to observe the result, you might conclude that the change in the factor is the cause of the result. Perhaps this is why experimental design is so important.

Is there any different opinion?

sometimes, we can not control the factors which affect the results, we can only observe its development for the lack of technology

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