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高盛 如何定位欧元的弱势和经济的增长（20100301 英文版）.pdf
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内容简介：
Euro weakness and relatively weak European domestic
economic data have become a central focus for investors.
We look at strategies to position for a possible continuation
of this trend. We recommend exposure to BRICs (Bloomberg
ticker GSSTBRIC) and China (GSSTCHNA) as well as our US
dollar exposure basket (GSSTAMER).
Currency and foreign growth take centre stage
Euro weakness may reflect both relatively weaker European macro data of
late, together with sovereign contagion fears. If both continue to be
drivers, a strategy of focusing on foreign exposed stocks would be
indicated – either those stocks that benefit from translational boosts
resulting from foreign currency exposure, and/or companies that are
exposed to stronger end demand in areas outside Europe.
BRICs & China exposed companies offer access to stronger growth
From the perspective of stronger foreign growth, we continue to focus on
BRICs exposure. Our European BRIC basket has outperformed the
DJSTOXX 600 by 25% since the start of 2009 but on our estimates still
does not look expensive. We also introduce a China exposure basket
(GSSTCHNA) comprising 22 European companies equally weighted, which
have high sales exposure to China (the basket median sales exposure is
17%). Any CNY appreciation would be an additional factor that might
boost the prospects of these stocks.
USD exposure against domestic retail banks in southern Europe
We also recommend our US dollar exposure basket – comprising
European companies which have high US sales exposure (GSSTAMER) for
investors who want to position for further euro weakness. We would also
pitch this against our southern European retail bank basket (GSSTMEDB)
as a way of hedging relative weakness in domestic economic conditions,
particularly in the southern European countries.
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