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开篇语：
对中国金融市场“二十年目睹之怪现状”后，曾经以为自己不会公开发表哪怕是一句评论的话。斩断情丝心犹乱，千头万绪仍纠缠。特别是看见很多寒门学子在付出了巨大心血后，最终还是没能找到入门路径，甚至误入歧途。
每天特留出一片闲暇，用中国国内商品期货品种来指导交易实战，理论与实践结合，拨乱反正，赠予有缘人！
良耕方寸地,春宽绕慈云,事成将有望,幸勿枉青春!
最近，在国内霍华德-马克斯的《周期》一书热卖，也被媒体和国内机构投资者奉为圭臬，不知道大家看完之后有何感想，对自己的学习和交易实践提高了多少？
其实，我个人认为这种软文类的书，看了也等于没看一样，在国内起到的最大作用就是培养了一批到处行骗的金融江湖术士。
言归正传，今天就从周期交易说起。交易的本质就是做预测，而预测本身是极其困难的事情，所以，交易本身是极具挑战性的工作。好在周期是能用来做预测的方法之一，不乏部分经济诺奖得主曾经也用其偶尔蒙对了几次大的经济事件。
我之所以这样说，是因为他们用的周期预测方法很原始，或许和其专业知识的局限性有很大关系吧。
基于周期的交易方法有好几种类型，今天我要介绍的一种周期量化投资方法是基于J. M. Hurst的预测方法。
下面是基于大连交易所焦炭主力合约J2001在2019年8月21日夜盘收盘后的最新数据运算的结果供大家交易参考。
Price is currently in the SECOND 4 daycycle, of the FIRST 8 day cycle, of the SECOND 17 day cycle, of the FIRST 34day cycle, of the 67 day cycle.
Updated FPA reveals that the dominant cyclehas a wavelength of 34.8d, or 35 bars. This is assumed to be the 40d nominalwave, which implies that all waves will be approximately the same (3% variance)as nominal. This cycle is FALLING fast. The underlying trend to this cycle iscurrently slightly UP, likely slowing down. Recent fulfilled projectionshowever would seem to indicate that the underlying trend is STRONGLY DOWN. Thefuture FLD indicates that this cycle will influence prices to RISE.
The sub-dominant cycle (next wave down fromthe dominant cycle) has a wavelength of 17.3d, or 17 bars. This is assumed tobe the 20d nominal wave. This cycle is FALLING fast. This is probably theSECOND of 2 sub-waves. The underlying trend to this cycle is currently FLAT,likely turning UP. Recent fulfilled projections however would seem to indicatethat the underlying trend is STRONGLY DOWN. The future FLD indicates that thiscycle will influence prices to RISE.
The pre-dominant cycle (next wave up fromthe dominant cycle) has a wavelength of 67.5d, or 68 bars. This is assumed tobe the 80d nominal wave. This cycle is RISING, probably slowing down. Theunderlying trend to this cycle is currently FLAT, likely turning DOWN. Recentfulfilled projections however would seem to indicate that the underlying trendis STRONGLY UP. The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence pricesto form a trough in a short while, and then rise.
Σ L is currently FLAT, likely TURNING DOWN.
The 34.8d CYCLE component of Σ L is currentlySTRONGLY DOWN (strength: -2 cycles), and accelerating.
The 17.3d CYCLE component of Σ L iscurrently FLAT, likely TURNING UP.
The 8.6d CYCLE component of Σ L iscurrently STRONGLY UP (strength: 2 cycles), and accelerating.
The 4.3d CYCLE component of Σ L iscurrently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -3 cycles), and accelerating.
The 4.3d cycle might be the ideal tradingcycle, with an average potential of 5.2% per half-cycle. This equates to 51.8% because of leveragesettings. However trading such a short cycle is not recommended. Traders aretherefore recommended the 17.3d cycle, with an average potential of 8.5% perhalf-cycle. This equates to 85.3% because of leverage settings.
The last phasing analysis was 1 bar ago. Inthat time price has FALLEN by 6 to 1957.00.
FLD PATTERN PROGRESSION:
Sequence Ref #0 is expected to reach aLOWER target of 1822.45(-2.42 diff) by the same date, on 2019/8/25
Sequence Ref #1 is expected to reach a HIGHERtarget of 2118.13(-13.18 diff) by the same date, on 2019/9/7
DETAILED FLD PATTERN/PRICE CORRELATION:
Price did not move DOWN as it was expectedto by the FIRST sequence (ref #0) of the previous pattern and so has got nocloser to the target of 1822.45. The closest price has gotten to this target sofar is 1915.00 (5.1% short), 13 bars ago. This target is only expected to beachieved in 4 bars, but it MIGHT be necessary to consider this target as havingbeen achieved with a shortfall.
The SECOND sequence (ref #1)'s trigger isexpected in 3.5 bar(s) and so we are not comparing pattern/price progress forthis sequence.
CURRENT FLD PATTERN PROJECTION:
Price is currently moving DOWN (last close1957), in a DOWNWARD FLD pattern.
The first FLD pattern sequence (ref #0)projects a price movement DOWN to a target of 1822.45 by about 2019/8/25.
The second FLD pattern sequence (ref #1)projects a price movement UP to a target of 2118.13 by about 2019/9/7.
OUTSTANDING FLD PROJECTIONS:
67.5d: no projection
34.8d: no projection
17.3d: no projection
8.6d Refined FLD projection created on2019/8/16 projecting a price fall of 43.2468 to 1939.0060 by 2019/8/22. Thisprojection target was reached and exceeded on 2019/8/21. Normal FLD projectioncreated on 2019/8/19 projecting a price fall of 47.7709 to 1929.9580 by2019/8/24. This projection target was reached and exceeded on 2019/8/21.
4.3d: no projection
附注：此投资系列完全是公益性质，也完全用于实盘交易中，非paper trading。主要目的是让大家怎么以弱胜强、实现知识与财富的双丰收，特别是有财务困境的学子。当然，要完全能做到100%的盈利胜算，光靠周期交易这一种方法还做不到，需要其他的方法配合，这也是后续系列要讨论的主题。我所介绍的投资技术是我十几年的心血结晶，来自美国、英国、法国、德国、俄罗斯、荷兰以及北欧其它国家等十几个国家的最前沿技术（包括全球最新进的人工智能技术的交易实战哦。。。）欢迎大家多提宝贵意见。
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