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Much has been written over the years on Cycle Analysis for the purpose of market timing, and for good reason. While most ignore the basic fact that price action is the reflection of cycles at work, those who have embraced cycles as a means of market timing are greatly rewarded.
As a trader for over 15 years now, I have applied many methods towards market timing. The result of all has led me, many years ago, to follow the course of market cycles which are based on natural laws. This decision has paid off and continues to do so in my trading today.
In its simplest form, you can liken market timing using Cycle Analysis much like watching your kid jumping on a trampoline. Watch for just a few moments and you can quickly anticipate the next time the child's feet will touch the trampoline with precision.
As analysis in trading is considered divided into two camps, Fundamentals and Technicals, Cycle Analysis is considered a subset of Technical Analysis.
In conventional technical analysis we usually look for the breaking of a trendline or the crossing of moving averages, oscillators or other types of indicators in order to tell us that something has changed. However, this indication of change is telling us that the event has already happened. In other words, it is "after-the-fact".
The beauty of cycle analysis is that we can often pinpoint possible tops and bottoms well ahead of time. The implications of this should be obvious to any trader who has experienced great risk and loss due to being too early or too late entering a trade.
Now I'm not going to get into the details as to why cycles exist and how they are related to price action. There is much written on this to fill all your quiet nights in reading for decades. If you spend just a little bit of time watching a MACD or Stochastic indicator on a price chart, you should already be convinced that cycles are at work behind the scenes. Just watch as they swing up and down between extremes (overbought and oversold zones) to get a 'feel' for the cycle ebb and flow of price action.
Michael S. Jenkins, in his book "The Geometry of Stock Market Profits" (page 16) makes the statement that "The solution to the stock market strategy... to develop a rational plan... in buying and selling... CYCLES ARE THE KEY." He links cycle analysis to gaining mastery over the hardest part of professional trading for a living... pulling the trigger with a cool head and extreme confidence.
This has definitely been the case for my own trading. Once I came to realize the power of trading based on cycles, my trading successes jumped leaps and bounds. In any given month I average a high percentage of winning trades against losing trades, with the few losing trades resulting in ridiculously little capital loss. Timing trades with pinpoint accuracy is empowering, only leaving ones internal psychological and emotional baggage to be the only thing that can sabotage success. The method itself is pure.
My intention of writing this article is not to parade around my own personal successes in trading. Rather, as an analyst and mentor in the subject, my agenda is to cut through the fallacy of investing or trading based on the conventional norms and wake up the minds of those who desire better to know they can in fact achieve better if they stop following the methods used by the crowd.
Pythagoras (6th century BC) described TIME and space as being connected in terms of numbers. His contributions to Geometry is legendary, and the relationships found between nature, music, harmonics (cycles), and time. You can really get deep with this stuff.
Fortunately you do not need to get down to the nitty-gritty of why cycles exist in order to take advantage of them. What it takes is that you put in some time and effort toward applying simple methods.
W. D. Gann taught a subject called "Time and Price Squaring". This is one simple method of determining market cycles. Another is to get as many years of price data as you can and note the time between major tops and bottoms. You will be surprised to find how they tend to repeat, such as every 60-years, 30-years, 15-years, 10-years, 5-years, etc.
There is little time or room to discuss in detail all the available methods there are in determining market cycles. I've spent decades on this subject and have simplified much of my analysis by way of software, since regular analysis can be quite time consuming without the aid of computers. But if this article helps you to see that trading without the use of cycle timing may be hindering your trading progress, I have done my job.
What to become a profitable trader? Want to find more trades with less risk and greater profit potential? Become the trader you know you can become.
2019年8月27日下午三点收盘后焦炭主力合约J2001分析结果供夜盘或明天日盘参考（额外附带几张江恩图，注意细节哦，除了要有能力生成分析图之外，会看图也非常重要哦，到了变方向的时间节点，也就是说这波低点不是明天就是后天这2天产生了，具体会产生在哪个点位，私下告知
）。
Price is currently in the SECOND 4 daycycle, of the SECOND 8 day cycle, of the SECOND 17 day cycle, of the FIRST 34day cycle, of the 67 day cycle.
Updated FPA reveals that the dominant cyclehas a wavelength of 34.8d, or 35 bars. This is assumed to be the 40d nominalwave, which implies that all waves will be approximately the same (3% variance)as nominal. This cycle is approaching a TROUGH (and a minor nest-of-lows). Theunderlying trend to this cycle is currently slightly DOWN, likely accelerating.Recent fulfilled projections confirm the trend is DOWN, but indicate that it isSTRONGLY DOWN. The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence pricesto form a trough soon, and then rise.
The sub-dominant cycle (next wave down fromthe dominant cycle) has a wavelength of 17.3d, or 17 bars. This is assumed tobe the 20d nominal wave. This cycle is overdue for a TROUGH (and a very minornest-of-lows). This is probably the SECOND of 2 sub-waves. The underlying trendto this cycle is currently slightly DOWN, likely slowing down. Recent fulfilledprojections confirm the trend is DOWN, but indicate that it is STRONGLY DOWN.The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence prices to form a troughsoon, and then rise.
The pre-dominant cycle (next wave up fromthe dominant cycle) has a wavelength of 67.5d, or 68 bars. This is assumed tobe the 80d nominal wave. This cycle is just beginning to FALL. The underlyingtrend to this cycle is currently slightly DOWN, likely accelerating. Recentfulfilled projections however would seem to indicate that the underlying trendis STRONGLY UP. The future FLD indicates that this cycle will influence pricesto form a trough in a short while, and then rise.
Σ L is currently DOWN (strength: 1), and accelerating.
The 34.8d CYCLE component of Σ L iscurrently STRONGLY DOWN (strength: -3 cycles), and accelerating.
The 17.3d CYCLE component of Σ L iscurrently DOWN (strength: 1), but decelerating.
The 8.7d CYCLE component of Σ L iscurrently FLAT
The 4.3d CYCLE component of Σ L iscurrently FLAT, likely TURNING UP.
The 4.3d cycle might be the ideal tradingcycle, with an average potential of 5.2% per half-cycle. This equates to 51.7% because of leveragesettings. However trading such a short cycle is not recommended. The 17.3dcycle is therefore recommended, with an average potential of 8.6% perhalf-cycle. This equates to 86.0%because of leverage settings.
The last phasing analysis was 1 bar ago. Inthat time price has FALLEN by 7.5 to 1875.50.
FLD PATTERN PROGRESSION:
Sequence Ref #0 is expected to reach a LOWERtarget of 1887.25(8.28 diff) by the same date, on 2019/8/27
Sequence Ref #1 is expected to reach a HIGHERtarget of 2056.37(-43.73 diff) 1 bars EARLIER, on 2019/9/8
DETAILED FLD PATTERN/PRICE CORRELATION:
Price did move DOWN (for 1 bar) as expectedby the FIRST sequence (ref #0) of the previous pattern and has approachedwithin 1% of the target of 1878.97 (12.97 short) which is adequate to considerthis target ACHIEVED. This point was reached 0 bars EARLIER than expected.
The SECOND sequence (ref #1) of theprevious pattern could have started, in which case: Price has got no closer tothe target of 2056.37. The closest price has gotten to this target so far is1952.00 (5.1% short), 1 bar ago. This target is only expected to be achieved in12 bars.
CURRENT FLD PATTERN PROJECTION:
Price is currently moving DOWN (last close1875.5), with the FLD pattern indicating an impending UPWARD move, because: Itis possible that the first sequence of the FLD pattern has already beenfulfilled, by the low of 1866 on 2019/8/27 which would indicate that thesecond, UPWARD sequence of the pattern is now in progress.
The first FLD pattern sequence (ref #0)projects a price movement DOWN to a target of 1887.25 by about 2019/8/27.
The second FLD pattern sequence (ref #1)projects a price movement UP to a target of 2056.37 by about 2019/9/4. Thismove would imply a 3-tier cascade of price crosses over the 4 day to 17 dayFLDs (est: 2019/8/29 & level: 1896.04) . This price move breaks above the 8day, and the 4 day, and the 17 day VTL implying that the trough yet to beformed will be the expected trough of the 34 day cycle. This move would imply a4-tier cascade of price crosses over the 4 day to 34 day FLDs (est: 2019/8/29& level: 1896.04) . This price move breaks above the 8 day, and the 4 day,and the 17 day VTL implying that the trough yet to be formed will be theexpected trough of the 34 day cycle.
OUTSTANDING FLD PROJECTIONS:
67.5d: no projection
34.8d Mid-Channel Pause FLD projectioncreated on 2019/8/19 projecting a price fall of 43.5000 to 1938.5000 by2019/8/28. This projection target was reached and exceeded on 2019/8/21.
17.3d Mid-Channel Pause FLD projectioncreated on 2019/8/23 projecting a price fall of 51.2500 to 1896.5000 by2019/8/27. This projection target was reached and exceeded on 2019/8/26.
8.7d Normal FLD projection created on2019/8/19 projecting a price fall of 47.7709 to 1929.9580 by 2019/8/28. Thisprojection target was reached and exceeded on 2019/8/21.
4.3d: no projection
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