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英文文献：Does tariff escalation affect export shares: The case of cotton and coffee in global trade-关税升级是否影响出口份额:以全球贸易中的棉花和咖啡为例
英文文献作者：Narayanan G, Badri,Khorana, Sangeeta
英文文献摘要：
Many studies show that Tariff Escalation (TE) lowers export shares in many of the processing sectors, given their higher level of protection. However, there are instances when the export shares of processed sectors are higher despite the existence of TE. We examine both these contrasting cases of TE in this paper. On the one hand, there is TE in coffee and coffee products in developing countries, which lead in raw coffee exports and lag in roasted coffee exports. On the other hand, there is a similar pattern of TE in developing countries, which are leading exporters of cotton textiles, but not as much of raw cotton. This raises the question whether TE has a systematic impact on a country’s export shares. We use a widely used economy-wide model named GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) and its accompanying Data Base 2004 version. We supplement the data with UN commodity statistics and other country-specific and industry-specific sources to split cotton, cotton textiles, coffee and coffee products from aggregated sectors in this dataset. We analyze different policy scenarios of bringing the tariffs for processing sectors to the levels of their raw materials for the value-chains of cotton and coffee. Our results focusing on export shares show that TE can lead to higher or lower export shares depending on various other factors such as the actual tariff differences across sectors and countries.
许多研究表明，关税升级降低了许多加工部门的出口份额，因为这些部门的保护程度较高。然而，在某些情况下，尽管存在技术含量，加工部门的出口份额仍然较高。在本文中，我们研究了这两种不同的TE情况。一方面，发展中国家的咖啡和咖啡产品有TE，它们在生咖啡出口方面领先，在焙烤咖啡出口方面落后。另一方面，发展中国家的TE也有类似的模式，这些国家是棉织品的主要出口国，但原棉的出口却没有那么多。这就提出了一个问题，即贸易顺差是否会对一国的出口份额产生系统性影响。我们使用广泛使用的经济范围模型GTAP(全球贸易分析项目)及其附带的数据库2004年版本。我们使用联合国商品统计数据和其他特定国家和特定行业的来源来补充数据，以便在该数据集中将棉花、棉纺织、咖啡和咖啡产品从聚合部门中分离出来。我们分析了将加工部门的关税提高到棉花和咖啡等价值链原材料水平的不同政策情景。我们对出口份额的研究结果表明，TE会导致出口份额的上升或下降，这取决于各种其他因素，如不同行业和国家之间的实际关税差异。
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