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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月中国证券市场数据库
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
Inflation and monetary tightening fear overplayed
Strong company results set to beat consensus
Is Beijing a “ghost town”, as some claimed?
China Unplugged (中國亮) is the latest product from the HSBC China
Strategy team. It’s a regular data pack covering nearly 100 indicators in
five categories – market performance, earnings forecast and revision
momentum, valuation metrics and comparison and liquidity flows – as
well as drivers for 16 sectors and subsectors. More than that, after scouring
the raw data we identify the three things which really caught our eye:
1. Monetary tightening: All the talk has been about the two 50bp RRR
hikes this year but few have noticed that the PBoC has injected over
RMB400bn of liquidity into the banking system y-t-d through open
market operations. Also, food prices rose only moderately over the
holiday season, which may give PBoC more time on interest rates.
2. Results season: 1,098 out of the 1,748 A-share listed companies
have issued 2009 earnings guidance so far, representing 40%+ of
total market cap. Actual results may beat the consensus forecast of
33% profit growth should the trend of positive guidance continue.
3. Property bubble? Jim Chanos, a renowned hedge fund short-seller,
has predicted China could be “Dubai times 1,000, or worse”, citing
the 50%+ vacancy rate for Beijing’s office buildings. But HSBC’s
property team believes this is an exaggeration and Jones Lang
LaSalle expects the vacancy rate to drop to 17% by 2014.
We reiterate our buy-on-dips call and expect March to be a better month
for market performance should fears of monetary tightening recede on
lower inflation readings and companies deliver strong results.
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