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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球金融危机对日本银行业影响分析报告
【作者】：摩根大通
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：53
【目录或简介】：
RoE decline due to capital increases could lower major banks’ share
price volatility: RoE at both city banks and regional banks is on a downtrend
due to capital increases. The negative impact of capital increases on city
banks’ RoE has been especially large. We estimate annualized RoE at city
banks was roughly 4.9% in 1H FY2009, down 1.3ppt from an annualized rate
of 6.2% owing to megabanks’ capital increases totaling roughly ¥3.76 trillion
over the past 18 months. Assuming core operating profit remains unchanged,
we calculate RoE at 6.7% if credit costs are a standard 30bp, and only 7.4%
even if the economy improves to the point where credit costs fall to 20bp.
Because the gap between RoE in a strong economy and in a weak economy
shrinks as capital is raised, we think share price volatility will decline.
• Tightening of global financial regulations may impact the management
strategies of Japanese banks: Last year the market’s main focus was Basel
III. Starting this year, in addition to Basel III, we expect active debate on a
variety of financial regulations and think this could have an impact on
management strategies at major banks. As major banks around the world
globalize operations, we think a uniform global regulatory system could
replace the current country-by-country system. As some of these new
regulations are likely to affect megabanks, we think they could influence
megabanks’ management strategies.
• Risk that RoE at US and European banks will decline considerably if all
proposed regulations are imposed: J.P. Morgan European banks analyst
Carla Antunes da Silva believes that if all the proposed regulations from
individual countries and Basel III are imposed on global major banks, RoE
would decline considerably. Specifically, based on her estimates, the sum of
the current proposals would see RoE for global banks drop from 13.3% to
5.4% in 2011. (See her report, Global Banks — Too Big to Fail?: A Review of
Regulatory Proposals, published February 17, appended from page 9 of this
report.) Proposed regulations include the following: (1) Separation of
activities: Separation of risk taking from more ‘socially’ required banking
services; (2) Increased capital requirements: Such as those proposed in Basel
III; (3) Increased liquidity requirements; (4) Caps on size and concentration:
Proposals focusing on capping the asset or liability bases of the largest banks;
(5) Accounting changes: Dynamic provisioning (dynamic use of reserves such
as making higher reserve contributions during good economic times to be
drawn down during weaker economic times); (6) Taxation and stability fees:
Taxes such as the Tobin tax, implicit guarantee tax, bonus/windfall taxes; (7)
Recovery and resolution: Recovery and resolution plans including living wills;
and (8) Macro prudential regulation: Establishment of an international
resolution fund that could be used to handle international bank failures. While
we do not expect all of these regulations to be imposed on Japanese banks, we
think they could have some impact. We think Ms. Antunes de Silva’s report is
helpful as it provides a view of the direction that the global debate on
regulation is taking.
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