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【出版时间及名称】：JPM-AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE-BUSINESS JET MONTHLY-MARCH 2010
【作者】：jpmorgan
【文件格式】：podf
【页数】：36
【目录或简介】：
This report contains our industry delivery projections plus data on market share
and the used market. The industry is an important driver for many companies we
cover, including Bombardier, Embraer, General Dynamics, Honeywell, Rockwell
Collins, Spirit AeroSystems, and Textron.
• February was a minor bump in the road to recovery. While we expect
used market conditions to continue along the gradual path of improvement,
we have noted that bumps in the road are likely, and February was a small
one. Used inventories increased for the first time in six months, prices
dropped after appearing to stabilize, and while flight ops were up nicely y/y,
they fell sequentially on a seasonally adjusted basis. The Feb numbers
highlight that while business jet indicators are far better than they were
several months ago, conditions are still fragile. As for the new market, we
continue to believe a recovery will unfold only gradually and that there is risk
of further cuts, particularly for large jets.
• Used inventory increased 10 bps. Used jet inventory of in-production
models increased 10 bps to 12.6% in Feb, the first increase in six months.
Light (+20 bps) and Medium (+10 bps) jets drove the increase, partially offset
by Heavy jets (-10 bps). By OEM, Hawker Beechcraft (+40 bps), Bombardier
(+20 bps) and Cessna (+20 bps) saw increased inventories, while Embraer
(-60 bps), Gulfstream (-30 bps) and Dassault (-30 bps) inventories decreased.
• Avg asking price decreased 2.7% to $11.9 mil. This was the first result
below $12 mil since 1H98, and it is now down 27% from the peak level in
February 2008. By category, Heavy (-3.7%) and Medium jets (-1.6%)
witnessed price contractions, while Light jet prices (-0.2%) were essentially
flat. Prices had held flat in Dec and Jan.
• Flight ops up 11% y/y in Jan. This was the first double-digit increase since
April 2004, aided by a very weak comp, and ops were actually down 4%
sequentially on a seasonally adjusted basis. Comps should remain easy in the
coming months, so the growth rate should remain elevated. Flight ops are still
16% up from the March 2009 bottom, and we expect this to translate into
rising aftermarket demand for suppliers in the coming months.
• Q4 deliveries declined 21% y/y. The six major OEMs plus Boeing and
Airbus delivered 253 aircraft in 4Q10 for a 21% y/y decline. By OEM,
Embraer, Dassault and Airbus deliveries increased, while all other
manufacturers declined, though ERJ was driven by Phenom 100 deliveries.
For all of 2009, deliveries totaled 868, down 25%.
• Earnings and presentations approaching. We expect additional color on the
industry next week when ERJ and COL present at the JPM Aviation,
Transportation & Defense Conference March 9. In addition, UTX will hold an
analyst day March 12, ERJ will
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