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Introduction
STANDARD & POOR’SISPLEASEDTOPRESENT “Asia-Pacific But as the global economy gradually rebounds, will these
Markets Outlook 2010.” This is a twice-yearly update in which ideals be upheld? Or will the memories of difficult lessons
we offer our views on what might be ahead for the region’s debt fade? For the long-term good of our region, market
and equity markets. We also share recent thought-leadership participants must continue to strive for the former by actively
articles by senior credit analysts and key commentators—our seeking ways to cement the best sort of new normal. And the
contribution to the increasingly urgent global and regional new normal must also be a shared normal. There’s no doubt
debates about post-crisis challenges and opportunities. we will see an increased intensification of shared global
After a difficult 2009, Asia-Pacific governments’ fiscal vulnerabilities and interdependences.
stimulus programs appear to have staved off the myriad worse- We have also focused on China in this publication. The
case scenarios that haunted the collective imagination from late story of this immense and dynamic emerging market continues
2008. Going into 2010, the mood is more upbeat while also to fascinate, even more so in its more recent role as an engine
cautious and necessarily wise to potential risks. Recent concerns for global recovery. In these pages we share some recent
about Greece, for instance—and ongoing market uncertainty commentaries about the challenges that lie ahead—for the
about the sustainability of U.S. recovery and growth—remind development of Shanghai as an international finance center,
us that our region is part of a highly integrated whole. and for the much-discussed future internationalization of the
We are well aware that the eyes of the world have turned Chinese renminbi.
to the emerging markets of Asia for the ongoing growth Standard & Poor’s has been involved in China for many
impetus that will eventually feed back into older developed years, starting when we issued a sovereign credit rating back in
markets. Asia-Pacific has a crucial role to play in the early 1992. Today, we provide credit ratings on industrial,
conversations that are now unfolding around the world as key banking, and insurance companies and recently signed a
policymakers try to envisage the “new normal”. The call from technical services agreement with local credit rating agency,
bodies such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Shanghai Brilliance. We are planning to establish a Greater
Economic Forum, the World Bank, and the G-20 has been for China headquarters in Shanghai to support China’s growing
nothing less than a rethinking of twentieth-century models of capital markets as well as Shanghai’s emergence as a leading
capitalism. There is little patience for the old ways of extreme global financial hub. We will also be expanding our teams in
speculation, arbitrage, and short-selling. Rather, there is a Hong Kong and Beijing to meet the growing needs of financial
strong sense of hope that the new normal will be about market participants in both cities.
environmentally responsible growth, poverty reduction, social As always, we welcome your comments and feedback on
stability, global inclusion, and small-scale, targeted regional our research and insights. We trust you will find this
and local development programs. There’s also hope that it will publication useful as you prepare for 2010 and beyond.
be about the free flow of financial information and capital and
the wiser use of regulation that facilitates the mobilization of
capital within the region and enables its efficient allocation to
the sectors—starting with infrastructure—that contribute to
long-term growth. Capitalism, yes. But more humane,
reasonable, and sustainable. Our commentary “Resilience And
Dynamism: Achieving Sustainable Growth In Asia-Pacific In TOM SCHILLER
The Wake Of The Global Economic Crisis,” explores the EXECUTIVE MANAGING DIRECTOR AND HEAD OF ASIA-PACIFIC
importance of balance in all this. STANDARD & POOR’S
Content
3 Introduction
by Tom Schiller, Executive Managing Director and Head of Asia-Pacific, Standard & Poor’s
6 Sino-U.S. Bridge Over Troubled Waters
by Harold McGraw III, Chairman, President, and CEO of McGraw-Hill Companies
8 Consistency In Credit Ratings
by Deven Sharma, President, Standard & Poor’s
10 ASIA-PACIFIC MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK: As Recessionary Darkness Fades, Asia-Pacific
Is Poised To Rise And Shine Again
by Dharmakirti Joshi, Director and Principal Economist, CRISIL Ltd.
18 ASIA-PACIFIC CREDIT RATINGS OUTLOOK: Past Experience Stands Asia-Pacific In
Good Stead For 2010
by Ian Thompson, Managing Director and Senior Credit Officer, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services
24 ASIA-PACIFIC EQUITY MARKETS OUTLOOK: 2010 Looks Positive For Asia-Pacific Equities Markets
But Returns Will Be Lower
by Lorraine Tan, Director of Research, Standard & Poor’s Equity Research
33 Equities Outlook Glossary
35 Equities Outlook Disclosures and Disclaimers
36 The New Normal (The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be)
by David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard & Poor’s
44 The Softer Side Of Building Shanghai As An International Finance Center
by Ping Chew, Managing Director and Head of Greater China, Standard & Poor’s
48 Why China’s Currency Won’t Replace The Dollar Anytime Soon
by KimEng Tan, Elena Okorotchenko, and William Hess
52 Resilience And Dynamism: Achieving Sustainable Growth In Asia-Pacific In The Wake
Of The Global Economic Crisis
by Tom Schiller, Executive Managing Director and Head of Asia-Pacific, Standard & Poor’s
52 Asian Sovereigns To Remain In Debt Markets
by William Hess
66 Asia-Pacific Office Locations
67 Asia-Pacific Regional Contacts
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