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【出版时间及名称】：JPM-THE BRICKS&MORTAR REPORT-MARCH 2010：the tiger waits for the dragon-100306
【作者】：jpmorgan
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：53
【目录或简介】：
Asia Pacific Equity Research
06 March 2010
The Bricks & Mortar Report
March 2010: the tiger waits for the dragon
Singapore
Real Estate
Christopher Gee, CFAAC
(65) 6882-2345
christopher.ka.gee@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private
Limited
Yash Mishra
(91-22) 6157 3326
yash.x.mishra@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
See page 49 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
FTSE EPRA NAREIT Asia Price Index
0
1000
2000
3000
Apr-05 Apr-07 Apr-09
Source: Bloomberg.
Listed real estate markets size in Asia-
Pac
US$ in billions
65
155
162
39
8
17
0 50 100 150 200
Australia
Japan
HK/China
Singapore
India
Others
Source: EPRA.
J.P. Morgan’s Asia-Pacific real estate equities
research team list is on page 48.
• All eyes on the National People’s Congress meeting: Equity
investors appear to us to be waiting for policy direction from China’s
National People’s Congress meeting now underway before making a
move to add risk. For the China property market, specific concerns
surround the potential introduction of a property tax on ownership,
which we believe could be difficult to implement in practice, and thus
likely to be put in place gradually.
• Physical market disconnect with the stocks: Whilst physical
property prices and rents are moving upwards in many regional
markets, property stocks have lagged and discounts to NAVs have
widened. The removal of the policy overhang in Hong Kong has
allowed the property stocks in that market to close that gap in Feb
2010, and we see the swings in the policy pendulum as a continuing
share price driver.
• No bubbles in property stock valuations. Notwithstanding a lot of
talk about asset price bubbles in the region, we think property stock
valuations are hardly in bubble-territory, with stocks trading below or
at historical average discounts to NAV, or at the low end of P/E trading
ranges. Our China property stock coverage trades at 14.3x FY10E
earnings, well below the 2007 peak of 46.5x earnings for that year.
Hong Kong and Singapore developers are at or below historical
average discounts to our NAV estimates, compared to premia or parity
to NAV in 2007.
• Shifting China property to neutral in our model portfolio. Markets
have now had at least six months to confront and price in the shift in
the policy pendulum back toward normalization, if not tightening. We
believe the policy environment is properly priced now in China
property stock valuations and there is upside risk if demand and/or
ASPs hold up above now-conservative assumptions for the year. We
move Singapore property to an underweight in our model portfolios
with this move.
• We will be introducing an absolute return model portfolio: We are
establishing an absolute return portfolio with a target 20% return for
the year.
J.P. Morgan Asia Property: Top Picks
Price P/E (x) Disc to
Rating Stock name Market LC$ FY09E FY10E NAV
OW Sun Hung Kai Properties HK 110.30 22.78 20.59 -28.30%
OW Sino Land HK 14.74 19.82 24.60 -22.32%
OW Yanlord China 1.91 12.84 10.78 -31.73%
OW KWG Property Hldgs China 5.34 19.96 11.24 -46.34%
Source: Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices as of Mar 5, 2010.
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