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【出版时间及名称】：JPM-VIETNAM VISTA-BI-WEEKLY MARKET UPDATE-100316
【作者】：jpmorgan
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：26
【目录或简介】：
Stock market round-up: Clearer signs of a macro recovery (expected
GDP growth of 5.6-5.8% Y/Y; industrial output growth of 13.5-13.8%;
and retail sales growth of 24%) resulted in improved trading sentiment on
the local floors. The VNINDEX rose 7% to 531.51, while the VHINDEX
increased 6.8% to 173.45. The daily trading value increased strongly (by
78%) to US$111MM on the HOSE, and rose 170% to US$52MM on the
HNX. Foreign investors were net buyers with US$13.6MM on the HOSE
and US$5.2MM on the HNX.
• Economy: During January-February, Vietnam’s total payments rose
1.39% YTD, while banks’ deposit mobilization fell 0.17% and loans grew
1.4% YTD. Due to a rise in the deposits of residents at banks after the Tet
holidays, and a pre-Tet surplus of VND13 trillion in banks’ excess
liquidity, the commercial banks currently have a surplus working capital of
VND30 trillion, leading to less brisk transactions in the inter-bank market.
Following the recent circular from SBV on negotiated lending, the lending
rate at commercial banks has moved to around 14-16% p.a., and loans for
individuals to 18-20% p.a.
• Strategy perspectives: We believe inflation and rate expectations are
mostly discounted, but a rising trade deficit is still an overhang. Liquidity
has improved for both the local banking system as well as the local stock
market. Political maneuvering could reduce the willingness to implement
reforms, in our view. We are positive on the solid earnings outlook of
leading companies in the sectors that are closely related and could benefit
from Vietnam’s structural growth story and domestic demand; this
includes consumer goods, infrastructure (ports and roads), software
manufacturers, and property developers -- especially those mostly exposed
to the medium-end segment, possessing large land banks, or with
successful sales in 2007-2008. The local market valuation has also
corrected to a less demanding FY10E consensus P/E of 13.6x. Coupled
with a resurgence in the EM risk appetite, this provides a more reasonable
base for fresh inflows, in our view.
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