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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国酒店行业投资手册
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：66
【目录或简介】：
REIT Strategy
Hotel Investors’ Handbook
Paul Morgan
paul.b.morgan@morganstanley.com
Ryan Meliker
ryan.meliker@morganstanley.com
Our Hotel Investors’ Handbook is an industry-level analysis that incorporates a new, proprietary framework for evaluating hotel investment strength and long-term growth potential. We apply our asset-level analysis to reach portfolio-wide conclusions for the lodging REITs and leading hotel brands & brand families.
Highlights
Luxury should outperform. We expect the luxury and full-service lodging segments to lead the US industry out of the worst downturn of the modern era and expect hotel owners focused in these segments (as well as urban markets) to outperform their counterparts. Based on our analysis, Strategic Hotel Capital owns the strongest US hotel portfolio across the lodging REITs, followed closely by Starwood’s US owned portfolio.
Who will lag? We expect weaker markets and lower price points to lag during the recovery, both from a cash flow perspective and on a price per key valuation basis. Second tier hotels suffer from less robust transaction pricing in the current environment, and face increased competition from supply in the longer term. From a fundamental perspective, the portfolios more oriented toward these types of properties include Hospitality Properties Trust, Felcor Lodging Trust and Ashford Hospitality Trust.
What are the top properties and who owns them? Of our top-tier hotels, HST owns the greatest share at 6.6%, followed by Hyatt (2.8%) and Starwood (2.0%). From a brand family perspective, Marriott accounts for 31% of the top tier rooms and Hilton accounts for 25%. Based on our methodology, the top U.S. assets owned by publicly traded hotel companies are the Loews Santa Monica Beach Hotel (BEE), the W Hotel Times Square (HOT), the Grand Hyatt New York (Hyatt), the St. Regis New York (HOT) and the W Hotel New York (HST).
What are the top brands? While brand value can be measured a number of different ways and includes a subjective element, there is no doubt that one driver of brand value is the quality of the brand’s product. By our estimates, the top U.S. brands (with over 10 hotels) are W Hotels, Four Seasons, Fairmont and Ritz Carlton. Hyatt Summerfield Suites, Hyatt Place, and Cambria Suites all rank in the bottom five.
What are the top brand families? When evaluating only institutional-quality assets and their brands, we find that Accor has the strongest portfolio (excluding Motel 6), followed by Fairmont Hotels. Wyndham Worldwide has the weakest brand portfolio (inclusive of Wyndham and Hawthorne Suites), followed by Carlson and IHG. Note that even the weakest overall brands may have successful niches that could generate revenue growth beyond some stronger brands. The difference is that same-store revenue growth is likely to be more robust at our stronger brands through the up cycle.
Investment conclusions for lodging REITs. We expect the top quality portfolios to recover from this downturn much more quickly than the industry average. All else equal, we believe the REITs with the portfolios best positioned for recovery should be valued at lower cap rates and higher EV/EBITDA multiples. As such, the most interesting disconnects between portfolio strength and current valuations are: 1) LHO historically trades at discount to HST, SHO and DRH, but currently trades at a premium (19.7x vs. 18.6x, 18.1x and 18.5x, respectively). Given LHO’s portfolio quality it may not deserve the premium it currently trades at nor the discount it typically trades at, and 2) Hersha Hospitality Trust is currently trading at a slightly lower multiple than AHT, yet has a stronger portfolio and typically trades at a premium to AHT. Additionally, AHT is trading at a 69% premium to its long-run average multiple compared with the REIT average of a 60% premium. AHT is trading at a higher premium than all REITs except, BEE, LHO and HST, despite its portfolio rating.
Investment conclusions for lodging C-corps. Our analysis shows that HOT’s owned portfolio is materially stronger than Hyatt’s, and HOT has more international exposure and a larger percentage of earnings driven from its stable fee business. As a result, we expect HOT to trade at a premium EV/EBITDA multiple, yet based on current consensus NTM estimates, Hyatt trades a 16.0x multiple vs. HOT’s 14.3x multiple. We believe Hyatt’s fundamentals, particularly for their owned portfolio will materially lag HOT’s over the next 12–24 months, which is not currently priced into the stocks.
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Table of Contents
3
Executive Summary
4
Introduction
5
Overview of the Lodging Industry
5
Chain Scale RevPAR forecast
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Demand Segment Forecast
8
Evaluating Hotel Investment Strength
10
Putting It All Together: Our Methodology
11
The Top Hotels in the US
13
Owner Analysis
16
Brand Analysis
19
Appendix I: Major Public Portfolios
31
Appendix II: Major Market Analyses
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