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美国经济预测
Fourth Quarter 2019
2019年第四季度
We’ve long expected the US economy to slow. But we don’t know how rapid the slowdown will be—or whether, with trade uncertainty, it could become a crash.
我们早就预计美国经济会放缓。但我们不知道经济放缓会有多快，也不知道在贸易不确定的情况下，经济是否会崩溃。
Introduction: Coming in for a (soft) landing?
介绍：正在软着陆？
“IF you can walk away from a landing,” test pilot Chuck Yeager is supposed to have said, “it’s a good landing.” That’s not quite true for economies: A bumpy landing might be quite uncomfortable, especially given the considerable risks facing today’s economy. And there’s no question that the US economy is coming in for a landing. A slowdown in late 2019 and early 2020 has been a feature of the Deloitte US economic forecast since early 2018, so this is hardly a surprise. But it leaves a question: Just how rapidly will the economy slow—and could it slow enough to actually crash?
试飞员查克·耶格（Chuck Yeager）本应说：“如果你能从着陆中走出来，这是一次很好的着陆。”但对经济体来说，情况并非如此：颠簸的着陆可能会让人感到相当不舒服，尤其是考虑到当今经济面临的巨大风险。毫无疑问，美国经济将迎来一个着陆期。自2018年初以来，德勤美国经济预测的一个特点就是2019年底和2020年初的经济放缓，因此这并不令人意外。但这留下了一个问题：美国经济究竟会以多快的速度放缓，是否会放缓到足以真正崩溃？
The landing is particularly complicated because policymakers have jiggled the controls on the economy several times in the past two years. Here’s a list of the major policy changes—and, yes, that’s more than usual in such a short period of time.
由于政策制定者在过去两年中多次调整对经济的控制，中国经济的着陆尤其复杂。这是一份主要政策变化的清单，是的，在这么短的时间内，这比平常要多。
The 2017 tax cut bill put a substantial amount of short-term demand into the economy in the first half of 2018. And the economy responded: The 2018 growth rate was nearly 3.0 percent, considerably above the forecast rate.
2017年减税法案在2018年上半年为经济注入了大量短期需求。而经济方面的回应是：2018年的增长率接近3.0%，大大高于预期。
The 2018 budget agreement raised spending in 2018 by quite a bit, which added to the growth of short-term demand and helped to boost the growth rate.
2018年预算协议将2018年的支出提高了不少，这增加了短期需求的增长，有助于提高增长率。
The 2018–19 government shutdown temporarily reduced demand and added to uncertainty. That helped to reduce spending—especially business spending—in the subsequent quarters.
2018-19年政府关门暂时减少了需求，增加了不确定性。这有助于减少支出，特别是在随后的几个季度中减少企业支出。
Starting in 2017 and continuing through today, the Trump administration has continued to impose additional tariffs, often unexpectedly. The tariffs have been met with retaliation (especially on the part of China). The results: slowing exports and more uncertainty, adding to the reluctance of businesses to spend money on investment.
从2017年开始，一直持续到今天，特朗普政府继续征收额外关税，经常出乎意料。关税遭到了报复（特别是中国方面）。结果是：出口放缓，不确定性增加，企业不愿增加投资。
DI_USEF_2019_Q4.pdf
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