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雷达卡
巴西
Economy labors through contraction
收缩性经济劳动力
Brazil’s economy contracted in Q1 2019. While fiscal stimulus is ruled out due to the poor health of public finances, there is not much monetary policy can do either. Reforms is likely the only way out.
巴西经济在2019年第一季度收缩。虽然由于公共财政状况不佳，财政刺激被排除在外，但货币政策也无能为力。改革可能是唯一的出路。
BRAZIL’S economy slid back into contraction in the first quarter of this year.1 It is an ominous sign that economic conditions are still tenuous in a country that held much promise until less than a decade ago. The fortune of consumers in Brazil hasn’t changed much over the past year either, as they are in a low-growth environment with not much to show for earnings and employment growth. Naturally, in such a scenario characterized by weak demand, businesses have not filled the gap with higher capital spending, especially as there is still quite a bit of room to utilize excess capacity. The question then is, how can Brazil revive its economy?
今年第一季度，巴西经济再次陷入萎缩。1这是一个不祥的迹象，表明一个直到不到10年前还抱有很大希望的国家的经济状况仍然脆弱。巴西消费者的财富在过去一年也没有太大变化，因为他们处于低增长环境中，收入和就业增长没有太多表现。当然，在这种需求疲弱的情况下，企业并没有用更高的资本支出来填补缺口，特别是在仍有相当大的空间利用过剩产能的情况下。那么问题是，巴西如何才能重振经济？
It’s not an easy task for sure. Monetary policy is unlikely to play a major role in any sort of revival as interest rates have been low for a long time now and there isn’t much scope for large cuts due to rising inflation and the currency weakening this year. The current state of fiscal health and rules governing spending mean there isn’t much space to boost the economy through stimulus either. The answer, perhaps, lies in reforms.2 But that is a difficult path to tread, given the unpopular nature of reforms and the challenges in building coalitions in the legislature to pass contentious reforms such as those related to pensions and the labor market.3
这肯定不是件容易的事。货币政策不太可能在任何形式的复苏中发挥主要作用，因为利率已经很长一段时间处于低位，而且由于今年通胀上升和货币走弱，大幅削减的空间不大。目前的财政健康状况和控制支出的规则意味着，通过刺激经济也没有太大的空间来提振经济。答案或许在于改革。2但鉴于改革不受欢迎的性质，以及在立法机构中建立联盟以通过诸如养老金和劳动力市场等有争议的改革所面临的挑战，这是一条艰难的道路
Economy back in contraction in the first quarter
一季度经济再度萎缩
Brazil’s real GDP fell by 0.2 percent quarter on quarter in Q1 2019, marking a return to contraction again after two years and reversing from a 0.1 percent expansion in the previous quarter. The decline in GDP right at the start of the year does not augur well for an economy trying to shake off nearly five years of subdued economic activity, including two years of annual GDP contraction in 2015 and 2016, and just 1.1 percent annual growth in the subsequent years. In Q1 2019, key components of Brazil’s economy yet again failed to deliver. While exports and investments fell, growth in private consumption slowed for a second straight quarter.
2019年第一季度，巴西实际国内生产总值（GDP）环比下降0.2%，标志着两年后巴西经济再次恢复收缩，并从上一季度0.1%的扩张逆转。对于一个试图摆脱近5年低迷经济活动（包括2015年和2016年两年的年度GDP萎缩，以及随后几年仅1.1%的年度增长）的经济体来说，年初GDP的下降并不是好兆头。2019年第一季度，巴西经济的关键组成部分再次未能兑现承诺。在出口和投资下降的同时，私人消费增长连续第二个季度放缓。
DI_Brazil-economic-outlook.pdf
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