IHS Markit预测2020:《2020年十大经济预测》(6页英文PDF)

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Top 10 economic predictions for 2020
2020年十大经济预测
How accurate were we in 2019?
2019年我们有多准确？
Global growth weakened considerably in 2019, falling from 3.2% in 2018 to of 2.6; the main culprits, the trade wars and weakening growth in China. In response, many central banks began to loosen monetary policy. However, as global exporters adjusted to the new world of higher tariffs, the impacts of the trade war on real GDP growth turned out to be smaller than expected. By the end of the year, many of the IHS Markit purchasing managers' indexes (especially in manufacturing) began to stabilize and show small gains. Moreover, while any major progress on the trade war will likely have to wait until after the 2020 US elections, an escalation in hostilities—significant enough to do major damage—also seems unlikely.
2019年，全球经济增长大幅放缓，从2018年的3.2%降至2.6%；罪魁祸首是中国的贸易战和增长疲软。对此，许多央行开始放松货币政策。然而，随着全球出口商适应关税上升的新世界，贸易战对实际GDP增长的影响结果小于预期。到年底，许多IHS Markit采购经理指数（尤其是制造业）开始企稳，并显示出小幅上涨。此外，尽管贸易战的任何重大进展都可能要等到2020年美国大选之后，但敌对行动的升级似乎也不太可能造成重大损害。
What's coming in 2020
2020年会发生什么
1) The US economy will expand 2.1%
1） 美国经济将增长2.1%
Based on estimates about sustainable growth in the labor force and productivity, IHS Markit assesses the trend (or potential) growth in the US economy to be around 2.0%. Real GDP growth was above trend from 2017 to 2019 (averaging 2.5% on a calendar-year basis) thanks to fiscal stimulus. However, with the effects of this stimulus wearing off, growth is returning to trend. Second- and third-quarter growth rates were 2.0% and 2.1%, respectively (at a seasonally adjusted annual rate). The run-up to the 2020 presidential election could provide some policy surprises (both positive and negative), which could affect the outlook.
根据对劳动力和生产力可持续增长的估计，IHS Markit估计美国经济的趋势（或潜在）增长约为2.0%。由于财政刺激，2017年至2019年的实际GDP增长高于趋势（历年平均2.5%）。然而，随着这一刺激措施的效果逐渐消失，经济增长正在回归趋势。第二季度和第三季度的增长率分别为2.0%和2.1%（按经季节调整的年增长率计算）。2020年总统大选前夕可能会带来一些政策上的意外（包括正面和负面），这可能会影响前景。
2) Europe's expansion stabilizes
2） 欧洲扩张趋于稳定
The slump in eurozone growth in 2019 was alarming, with some large economies, notably Germany and Italy, coming perilously close to recession. Nevertheless, there are some signs that the worst may be over, and we expect eurozone growth to stabilize at around 0.9% in 2020. Meanwhile the results of the UK election suggest that while the worst of the Brexit uncertainty may be over, there is still a hard slog ahead, with growth dropping from 1.3% in 2019 to 0.5% in 2020.
2019年欧元区经济增长的下滑令人担忧，一些大型经济体，尤其是德国和意大利，正危险地接近衰退。尽管如此，有迹象表明，最糟糕的情况可能已经过去，我们预计欧元区经济增长将在2020年稳定在0.9%左右。与此同时，英国大选的结果表明，尽管最坏的BRXIT不确定性可能已经结束，但仍有一个艰难的进展，增长从2019下降到2020的1.3%。
3) Japan's post-tax-hike growth stumble will be cushioned by more stimulus
3） 日本增税后的经济增长蹒跚将被更多刺激措施所缓冲
Japan's real GDP growth rate accelerated from 0.3% in 2018 to an estimated 1.1% in 2019. However, fourth-quarter growth is expected to turn negative as a result of the hike in the sales tax from 8% to 10% at the beginning of October. In response, the Abe government announced a larger-than-expected $120 billion, 15-month fiscal package, which will neutralize much of the negative effects of the sales tax hike. Consequently, after falling to 0.3% in 2020, Japanese real GDP growth is projected to recover to 0.5% in 2021.
日本实际GDP增长率从2018年的0.3%加速至2019年的1.1%。不过，由于10月初将销售税从8%上调至10%，预计第四季度增长将转为负增长。作为回应，安倍政府宣布了一项规模超过预期的1200亿美元、为期15个月的财政方案，这将在很大程度上抵消增值税上调带来的负面影响。因此，在2020年降至0.3%之后，日本的实际GDP增长预计将在2021年恢复至0.5%。
4) China's growth rate will fall below 6.0% for the first time since1990
4） 自1990年以来，中国的经济增长率将首次低于6.0%
While it is tempting to blame much of the recent slowdown on the US-China trade war, the decade-long deceleration is the result of both structural and cyclical factors: an aging population and a sharp drop-off in productivity growth mean that potential growth in China is lower now than a decade ago. We predict China's growth rate will slide even further, to 5.7% in 2020 and 5.6% in 2021, unless the government puts in place a more aggressive stimulus program.
尽管人们很容易将近期经济放缓的大部分原因归咎于美中贸易战，但长达10年的经济减速是结构性和周期性因素共同作用的结果：人口老龄化和生产率增长大幅下降意味着，中国目前的潜在增长率低于10年前。我们预测，中国的经济增长率将进一步下滑，到2020年将降至5.7%，到2021年将降至5.6%，除非中国政府出台更积极的刺激计划。

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Qualitative factors
定性因素
We must acknowledge several key factors that can affect our global as well as regional forecast:
我们必须认识到影响全球和区域预测的几个关键因素：
Lower growth prospects for the US and Canada (2020-2021 - approx. 2%) and globally (2.54 in 2020 and 2.66 in 2021 according to IHS Markit macro-models) will affect export-led economies in particular;
美国和加拿大（2020-2021年约为2%）和全球（根据IHS Markit宏观模型，2020年为2.54，2021年为2.66）的较低增长前景将特别影响出口导向型经济体；
High uncertainty in global trade policy due to US-initiated protectionism and retaliatory actions by countries affected is likely to continue;
由于美国发起的保护主义和受影响国家的报复行动，全球贸易政策的高度不确定性可能继续存在；
The results of presidential elections in the US in November 2020 will be of key significance as they can potentially shift the heading of the US policy; the recent impeachment creates an extra dose of instability in the US political scene prior to the elections, however, the procedure is almost sure to be terminated by the Republican-dominated Senate;
2020年11月美国总统选举的结果将具有关键意义，因为这可能改变美国政策的方向；然而，最近的弹劾案在选举前给美国政局带来了额外的不稳定因素，这个程序几乎肯定会被共和党主导的参议院终止；
US trade tensions with China (high US-imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese exports and retaliatory actions by China) are likely to persist under the Trump administration;
在特朗普政府时期，美国与中国的贸易紧张关系（美国对中国出口征收高额惩罚性关税，中国采取报复行动）可能会持续；
The trade war's impact will remain focused on China's exports to the US, and the related component exports from the rest of Asia to China (with few exceptions) - trade diversion is quite likely;
贸易战的影响仍将集中在中国对美国的出口，以及亚洲其他国家对中国的相关出口（几乎没有例外）——贸易转移的可能性很大；
The continuing trade conflict between the US and China can structurally alter global VCs apart from the already present precautionary shifts in global supply chains. At this stage appears to be working in the favor of economies such as Taiwan, Vietnam, and other parts of ASEAN-5 and some South American economies;
除了已经存在的全球供应链的预防性转变之外，美中之间持续的贸易冲突可以在结构上改变全球风投。在这个阶段，似乎有利于台湾、越南、东盟五国其他地区和一些南美经济体；
In the ongoing US-China trade negotiations China pledged to spend between USD 40-50 billion on agricultural products annually as part of a deal to end the trade war and thus to remove extra tariffs imposed since last year on US farm products; If successfully implemented this could ease the pressure in mutual trade relations and positively affect global trade in 2020 - 21, however, taking into account the course of tensions in trade since the outset of the conflict in 2018 and the dynamics of bilateral negotiations, the probability of the actual implementation of the last results of negotiations should be considered rather low and thus are unlikely to significantly affect the forecasts at least for 2020;
在正在进行的美中贸易谈判中，中国承诺每年在农产品上投入400-500亿美元，作为结束贸易战协议的一部分，从而取消自去年以来对美国农产品征收的额外关税；然而，考虑到2018年冲突爆发以来的贸易紧张进程和双边谈判的动态，如果成功实施这一措施，可以缓解双边贸易关系的压力，并在2020-21年对全球贸易产生积极影响，实际执行最后谈判结果的可能性应被视为相当低，因此不太可能对至少2020年的预测产生重大影响；
Upon the recent parliamentary vote results in the UK, Brexit at the end of January 2020 is on course; the no-agreement scenario is still possible, however, as it could bring adverse consequences for both the UK and EU the likelihood of that scenario is low (new custom checks and increasing trade frictions despite eventual agreement on a free-trade treaty);
在最近的英国议会选举结果中，Brexit在2020年1月底已经走上了正轨；然而，没有达成一致的方案仍然是可能的，因为这可能给英国和欧盟带来不利后果。这种情况的可能性很低（新的海关检查和增加贸易摩擦，尽管最终达成了自由贸易协定）。条约）；
The European Council (on 13 Dec 2020) reiterated its commitment to an orderly withdrawal on the basis of the Existing Withdrawal Agreement and called for its timely ratification and effective implementation and reconfirmed its desire to establish as close as possible a future relationship with the UK (customs union); The trade negotiations are very likely to continue long post-Brexit with some interim measures in place;
欧洲理事会（13月12日2020日）重申其承诺在现有撤回协定的基础上有序撤离，并呼吁其及时批准和有效实施，并重申其希望与英国（关税同盟）建立尽可能紧密的未来关系；贸易谈判很可能继续进行长期的后贸易谈判，并采取一些临时措施；
The paralysis of the multilateral dispute settlement system in the WTO is probable to last.
世贸组织多边争端解决体系的瘫痪可能会持续下去。

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