麦肯锡最新预测:《2020年我们在中国能期待什么？》(9页英文PDF)

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What can we expectin China in 2020?
2020年我们在中国能期待什么？
December 2019
2019年12月
By Gordon Orr
With domestic consumption powering economic growth, companies should consider stepping up their activities in 2020.
随着国内消费推动经济增长，企业应考虑在2020年加大活动力度。
2019 in China brought together long running challenges, such as uncertainty over US–China tariff levels and ever more intrusive regulation of business in China, with a few unexpected ones as well: the crisis in Hong Kong and the flare up triggered by tweets from an NBA coach, to mention just two. Yet for many businesses, opportunities flourished throughout the year as China’s economy grew roughly 6 percent. And in multiple key industries, the government’s commitment to global leadership started to pay dividends.
2019在中国汇集了长期运行的挑战，如对我们的不确定性-中国关税水平和越来越多的侵入性的业务在中国，也有一些意想不到的：香港的危机和爆发的推特从NBA教练，仅提及两个。然而，对许多企业来说，随着中国经济增长约6%，机遇在全年都在蓬勃发展。而在多个关键行业，政府对全球领导地位的承诺开始见效。
2020 will offer a similar mix of evolving, often worsening, challenges. Growing separation between the US and China in technology sectors seems inevitable. While some companies will evolve to remain relevant in both markets, others will choose to focus on one. In 2020 this separation may become broader, impacting financial markets much more directly. China’s economic momentum will continue in 2020 with domestic consumption leading the way, selectively creating opportunities. If China’s priority sectors match those of your business, 2020 will be a good year to step up as the taps of government funding remain open for now.
2020年将提供一个类似的组合不断演变，往往恶化的挑战。美国和中国在技术领域的分离似乎不可避免。虽然一些公司将在这两个市场保持相关性，但其他公司将选择专注于其中一个市场。到2020年，这种分离可能会变得更广泛，对金融市场的影响会更直接。2020年，中国经济将继续保持增长势头，国内消费将成为主导，有选择地创造机会。如果中国的优先领域与你的企业相匹配，2020年将是一个好的一年，因为政府资金的龙头目前仍然开放。

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关键词：企业 经济 环境 发展 资产

US-China relations
美中关系
Multiple areas of growing separation between the US and Chinese economies predicted in last year’s note were largely realized—investment flows, supply chain, data flows, people flows, technology procurement, standards. In all these areas, further separation will occur in 2020. One example, US government agencies, such as the National Institutes of Health and the Department of Energy, not just the Department of Defense, have been presenting US university administrators with hundreds of case examples where they believe non-US academics, largely Chinese, have failed to disclose parallel funding for their research from overseas governments along with commitments to share their IP discoveries with those governments. Those academics will likely be proactively excluded from US universities; many others will self-select out or simply not come to the US in the first place. Restrictions on investment from China into the US will shift from a focus on larger deals, which have shrunk to almost zero, to direct and indirect (i.e. through funds) investment into technology start-ups.
在去年的报告中，美中两国经济日益分离的多个领域在很大程度上是实现的投资流、供应链、数据流、人员流、技术采购、标准。在所有这些领域，2020年将进一步分离。一个例子是，美国ZF机构，如美国国立卫生研究院（National Institutes of Health）和能源部（Department of Energy），而不仅仅是国防部，一直在向美国大学管理者提供数百个案例，他们相信非美国学者，主要是中国人，他们没有披露海外ZF为他们的研究提供的平行资金，也没有承诺与这些ZF分享他们的知识产权发现。这些学者很可能会主动被美国大学排除在外；其他许多人可能会自行选择或根本不来美国。中国对美国投资的限制将从关注规模更大的交易（已缩减至几乎为零）转向直接和间接（即通过基金）投资科技初创企业。

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