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英文文献：The Effect Of Stochastic Storms On Optimal Beach Management-随机风暴对海滩最佳管理的影响
英文文献作者：Gopalakrishnan, Sathya,McNamara, Dylan,Smith, Martin D.,Murray, A. Brad
英文文献摘要：
Adaptation to climate change is a serious concern for coastal communities because rapidly eroding beaches and storms threaten both oceanfront property and coastal infrastructure. As the climate changes, coastal environments are likely to experience accelerated sea level rise and more frequent, intense storms increasing the need for policy intervention to protect coastal development. The effects of climate change vary across regions, and physical scientists are still grappling with the relative impacts of sea level rise and increased storm risks on shoreline dynamics. Furthermore, as communities respond through active shoreline stabilization driven by economic factors, economics become coupled with shoreline dynamics. In this paper we model beach nourishment in a stochastic dynamic framework to incorporate the effect of discrete storm events in optimal nourishment decisions. We find that the expectation of increased storm risk due to climate change is likely to intensify feedbacks in the human-natural system, increasing nourishment frequency and decreasing coastal property values in the long run. We also find that optimal nourishment response is more sensitive to changes in storm probability than to changing sea level rise. While scientists and policy makers are primarily concerned with sea level rise, our findings suggest that storm risks could be a greater concern.
对沿海社区来说，适应气候变化是一个严重的问题，因为迅速侵蚀的海滩和风暴威胁着海滨财产和沿海基础设施。随着气候变化，沿海环境可能会经历海平面加速上升和更频繁的强烈风暴，这就增加了保护沿海发展的政策干预需求。气候变化的影响因地区而不同，物理科学家仍在努力应对海平面上升和风暴风险增加对海岸线动态的相对影响。此外，由于社区在经济因素的推动下积极稳定海岸线，经济与海岸线动态结合在一起。在本文中，我们在一个随机动态框架模型海滩营养纳入离散风暴事件的影响在最优营养决策。我们发现，对气候变化导致的风暴风险增加的预期，可能会加剧人类-自然系统的反馈，增加营养的频率，并在长期内降低沿海财产的价值。我们还发现最佳营养反应对风暴概率的变化比对海平面上升的变化更敏感。虽然科学家和政策制定者主要关注海平面上升，但我们的研究结果表明，风暴风险可能是更大的担忧。
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