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Preface ix
Acknowledgments xi
CHAPTER 1 The Argument for a Sentiment-Based
Approach 1
What Is Fundamental? 4
Top-Down Approach 4
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 5
CHAPTER 2 The Problem with Fundamental Analysis 9
How the Human Brain Works 10
The Myth of Economic Indicators 11
Nonfarm Payrolls 12
Gross Domestic Product 16
Trade Balance 18
Treasury International Capital 19
Producer and Consumer Price Indexes 25
Conclusion 30
CHAPTER 3 The Power of Magazine Covers 31
The Death of Equities—August 13, 1979 32
Magazine Covers in the Currency Market 32
Conclusion 49
v
vi CONTENTS
CHAPTER 4 Using News Headlines to Generate Signals 53
Where to Look 67
Conclusion 67
CHAPTER 5 Sentiment Indicators 69
Commitments of Traders Reports 70
History of U.S. Futures Trading 71
Currency Futures History 73
Reading the COT Report 74
Using COT Data with Spot FX Price Charts 75
Understanding the Data 76
Watching the Commercials 77
Watching the Speculators 78
Commercial and Speculators Give the Same Signal 80
The Approach 83
Open Interest 91
Other Sentiment Indicators 93
Conclusion 100
CHAPTER 6 The Power of Technical Indicators 101
What Is Technical Analysis? 103
Keep It Simple 104
What Time Frames to Use? 104
Support and Resistance 105
Determining a Bias 108
Fancy Momentum Indicators and Overbought/Oversold 125
When to Get Out 141
CHAPTER 7 Explanation of Elliott Wave and
Fibonacci 151
Who Was Elliott? 151
Fibonacci: The Mathematical Foundation 163
Ratios 168
Specific Setups 169
Some Differences between Stocks and FX in Elliott 175
Contents vii
Building Up from Lower Time Frames 178
Multiyear Forecast for the U.S. Dollar 179
Multiyear Forecast for the USDJPY 179
Conclusion 181
CHAPTER 8 Putting It All Together 183
Why Most Traders Lose 183
Developing a Process 184
In Conclusion 185
Notes 187
Index 191
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