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2010-05-11T14:20:00Z
By Scott Anthony
The Edison Best New Products Awardsrecently bestowed a Gold medal in the Consumer Packaged Goods, Consumer Drug Segment to "Align Probiotic Food Supplement" from Procter & Gamble. This gives me the opportunity repeat a story that has important lessons for innovators everywhere.
I first met the Align teamin 2004. The team was developing a probiotic pill whose daily use could alleviate the symptoms of irritable bowel syndrome. More than 30 million people in the United States alone are reported to have this condition. The best that most can do is to modify their lives to account for the condition.
The idea was brimming with disruptive potential. A pressing problem with no adequate solutions. A potentially category-creating way to get the job done. The product had unique intellectual property, and consumers who tried it reported that their lives were changed.
And, of course, it was about to get shut down.
Why the disconnect? The original market forecast said that the opportunity would be relatively small. Launching a new brand is expensive, and the team hadn't yet worked out all the technological kinks. Big investment, high risk, small return is not a recipe for corporate approval.
Yet, the team, under the guidance of Nancy McCarthy, persevered. We helped the team conduct scenario analysis to identify the assumptions that would have to prove true to justify a full-scale launch. Management agreed to provide a small amount of money to learn more about these assumptions. The team quietly launched the product over the Internet. It didn't spend tens of millions in advertising; rather it used its existing pharmaceutical sales force to push the product in a few cities.
P&G then moved to sell the product online through websites like Walgreens.com. Finally, the product launched nationally early last year.
Important insights came from this process. Instead of simply having a vial with a bunch of pills in it, the Align team created a "blister pack" with days of the week on it to remind consumers to take the pill every day. Branding changed as well. Initial packaging said Align was "from the makers of Metamucil." Today Align stands alone.
As Chief Technology Officer Bruce Brown told me for a 2008 Forbes article describing Align, "The team stair-stepped to market, never investing ahead of learning." (You can also read more about Align in Chapter 6 of The Silver Lining.)
Anyone who has seen me speak knows that one of my favorite quotes is Intuit founder Scott Cook's wonderfully pithy, "For every one of our failures, we had spreadsheets that looked awesome." The lesson is not to confuse an awesome spreadsheet with an awesome business. Similarly, crummy market forecasts can obscure solid business opportunities.
Innovation success requires looking at the numbers critically before making investment decisions. Look for the assumptions behind the numbers and find simple, affordable ways to pressure test those numbers in as-close-to-market-conditions as possible.
Copyright © 2010 Harvard Business School Publishing. All rights reserved. Harvard Business Publishing is an affiliate of Harvard Business School.
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