The Business Forecasting Deal (GREAT BOOK FOR SAS!) pdf

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Name and Title: The Business Forecasting Deal: Exposing Myths, Eliminating Bad Practices, Providing Practical Solutions (Wiley and SAS Business Series Book 27)

Format: PDF

Author:Michael Gilliland  



Desciptions: Practical-nontechnical-solutions to the problems of business forecasting
Written in a nontechnical style, this book provides practical solutions to common business forecasting problems, showing you how to think about business forecasting in the context of uncertainty, randomness and process performance.

Addresses the philosophical foundations of forecasting
Raises awareness of fundamental issues usually overlooked in pursuit of the perfect forecast
Introduces a new way to think about business forecasting, focusing on process efficiency and the elimination of worst practices
Provides practical approaches for the non-statistical problems forecasters face
Illustrates Forecast Value Added (FVA) Analysis for identifying waste in the forecasting process
Couched in the context of uncertainty, randomness, and process performance, this book offers new, innovative ideas for resolving your business forecasting problems.



Print Length: 277 pages
Page Numbers Source ISBN: 0470574437
Publisher: Wiley; 1 edition (May 13, 2010)
Publication Date: May 13, 2010
Sold by: Amazon.com Services LLC
Language: English
ASIN: B003NE61MQ
Text-to-Speech: Enabled
X-Ray:
Not Enabled
Word Wise: Enabled
Lending: Enabled
Screen Reader: Supported
Enhanced Typesetting: Enabled
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #363,290 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)
#212 in Business Planning & Forecasting (Books)
#686 in Business Decision-Making
#101 in Business Planning & Forecasting (Kindle Store)

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This book aims to treat a gap in the literature by addressing the very foundations of business forecasting. Not in the careless and dogmatic way that one normally approaches things, but critically, in a way to draw out all the subtlety and implication of our assumptions and beliefs. The book explores issues left unmentioned in the traditional forecasting literature‐unmentioned because one assumes to understand them, or don't recognize them as issues at all. This book invokes a critical tone, it is not meant to discourage forecasting practitioners or to stifle innovation. Rather, it is a critique of the bad practices and snake‐oil solutions proffered by many vendors of forecasting services and software. It is meant to expose forecasting's myths and many pitfalls, so that the same mistakes don't have to be repeated over and over again by each new practitioner.

The purpose is to encourage the making of new mistakes, not repeating those already made by ourselves or others. Some worst practices have to do with the organizational processes and practices. This chapter covers worst practices in the nuts and bolts and mechanics of statistical forecasting, where fundamental mistakes are commonly made. It begins with a preview of six of these worst practices, followed by discussion, analysis, and recommendations for each. A serious mistake occurs when the fit of the model to history is confused with the accuracy of the forecasts the model will generate. A naive forecasting model provides a sound basis for all performance evaluations, but many organizations are unaware of the concept, or choose to ignore it. The naive model is essentially the do-nothing forecast and provides a level of forecast accuracy that can be achieved without any fancy systems, or processes, or even any forecasters.