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在具有住房的新凯恩斯模型中稳健地优化货币政策
ROBUSTLY OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY IN A NEW KEYNESIAN MODELWITH HOUSING
作者：
克劳斯·亚当（Klaus Adam）
迈克尔·伍德福德（Michael Woodford）
We analytically characterize optimal monetary policy for an augmented New Keynesian modelwith a housing sector. With rational private sector expectations about housing prices andinflation, optimal monetary policy can be characterized by a standard “target criterion” in termsof inflation and the output gap, that makes no reference to housing prices. If instead thepolicymaker is concerned with potential departures of private sector expectations from rationalones, and seeks a policy that is robust against such possible departures, then the optimal targetcriterion will also depend on housing prices. For empirically realistic cases, robustness requiresthe central bank to “lean against” housing prices, i.e., to adopt a stance that is projected toundershoot (overshoot) its normal targets for inflation and the output gap following unexpectedhousing price increases (decreases). Notably, robustly optimal policy does not require that thecentral bank distinguish between “fundamental” and “non-fundamental” movements in housingprices.
我们分析了具有住房部门的增强型新凯恩斯模型的最优货币政策。由于私营部门对住房价格和通货膨胀有合理的期望，因此最优货币政策的特征可以是通货膨胀和产出缺口方面的标准“目标标准”，而不涉及住房价格。相反，如果决策者关注私营部门预期与合理预期之间的背离，并寻求针对此类可能背离的稳健政策，那么最佳目标标准还将取决于房价。在经验上现实的情况下，稳健性要求中央银行“依靠”房价，即 采取一种预计会低于（超过）正常的通货膨胀目标以及由于房价意外上涨（下降）而导致的产出缺口的立场。值得注意的是，强有力的最优政策并不需要中央银行在房价的“根本性”变动和“非基本性”变动之间进行区分。
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