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英文文献：Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries-三个行业的周期性动态
英文文献作者：Hao Tan,John A. Mathews
英文文献摘要：
In this paper we offer a procedure to identify the industry cycles, and apply the procedure to the industrial data of three industries, namely semiconductors, PCs and FPDs. The identified cycles enable us to conduct two comparison analyses: (1) comparing the cycles with those suggested by industry experts in the corresponding industries; (2) comparing the industry cycles across the three industries. Moreover, we examine the factors possibly contributing to the cyclical dynamics of the industries built on three lines of explanations in the literature. Our vector auto regression (VAR) models establish that the dynamics of aggregate economy and capacity are among the most significant drivers in our semiconductor industry cycle.
在本文中，我们提供了一个确定产业周期的程序，并将该程序应用于三个产业的工业数据，即半导体、pc和FPDs。确定的周期使我们能够进行两种比较分析:(1)将周期与相应行业的行业专家建议的周期进行比较;(2)比较三个行业的产业周期。此外，我们还研究了可能导致行业周期性动态的因素，这些因素建立在文献中的三条解释线之上。我们的向量自回归(VAR)模型表明，总体经济和产能的动态是半导体产业周期中最重要的驱动因素之一。
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