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目录 页码
摘要 3
— 行业环境已明显转变——至少在短期内..................................................................3
— 调整我们的假设以反映政策转向.............................................................................3
— 压力测试: 开发商的现金流分析...............................................................................3
— 我们对该行业的看法从正面转为负面......................................................................4
— 我们观点面临的风险...............................................................................................4
未来挑战严峻 5
— 本轮调控政策的严厉程度超预期.............................................................................5
— 流动性紧缩..............................................................................................................6
— 房地产市场逐渐下滑...............................................................................................6
行业分析 10
— 股价和房价表现....................................................................................................10
— 开发商的财务状况分析..........................................................................................11
— 调整我们的预测、评级及估值...............................................................................14
— 敏感性分析............................................................................................................17
公司要点 19
— 雅居乐...................................................................................................................19
— 碧桂园...................................................................................................................22
— 中国海外 ...............................................................................................................24
— 富力地产 ...............................................................................................................27
— 世茂 ......................................................................................................................30
— SOHO中国.............................................................................................................32
— 恒盛地产 ...............................................................................................................34
— 保利地产 ...............................................................................................................36
— 金地集团 ...............................................................................................................40
— 招商地产 ...............................................................................................................42
— 合景泰富 ...............................................................................................................44
— 绿城 ......................................................................................................................47
— 合生创展 ...............................................................................................................49
— 龙湖地产 ...............................................................................................................52
附录 55
— 房地产调控政策....................................................................................................55
— 行业比较 ...............................................................................................................57
— 市盈率和市净率区间.............................................................................................62
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