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英文文献：Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s?-我们真的知道美国的货币政策在70年代是不稳定的吗?
英文文献作者：Qazi Haque,Nicolas Groshenny,Mark Weder
英文文献摘要：
The paper re-examines whether the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy was a source of instability during the Great Inflation by estimating a sticky-price model with positive trend inflation, commodity price shocks and sluggish real wages. Our estimation provides empirical evidence for substantial wage rigidity and finds that the Federal Reserve responded aggressively to inflation but negligibly to the output gap. In the presence of non-trivial real imperfections and well-identified commodity price-shocks, U.S. data prefers a determinate version of the New Keynesian model: monetary policy-induced indeterminacy and sunspots were not causes of macroeconomic instability during the pre-Volcker era. However, had the Federal Reserve in the Seventies followed the policy rule of the Volcker-Greenspan-Bernanke period, inflation volatility would have been lower by one third.
本文通过估算一个具有正趋势通胀、大宗商品价格冲击和实际工资低迷的粘性价格模型，重新审视了美联储(fed)的货币政策是否是大通胀期间的不稳定根源。我们的估计为工资刚性提供了经验证据，并发现美联储对通胀的反应积极，但对产出缺口的反应却微不足道。在存在非微小的真实缺陷和明确的商品价格冲击的情况下，美国的数据更倾向于新凯恩斯模型的确定版本:在前沃尔克时代，货币政策导致的不确定性和太阳黑子不是宏观经济不稳定的原因。然而，如果美联储在70年代遵循沃尔克-格林斯潘-伯南克时期的政策规则，通胀波动性将降低三分之一。
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