兰德报告：2020技术革命 (316页)

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Contents

Preface................................................................................................................................ iii
Foreword............................................................................................................................. v
Figures..............................................................................................................................xiii
Tables................................................................................................................................ xv
Summary......................................................................................................................... xvii
Technology Applications and Their Impact on Society ............................................. xvii
Regional and International Effects................................................................................ xx
Conclusions................................................................................................................ xxvi
Accelerated Technology Development Will Continue ......................................... xxvi
Capability and Need Differences Are Driving Global Technology Revolution
Differences Around the World........................................................................... xxvi
Public Policy Issues May Strongly Influence Technology Implementation ........ xxvii
Maintaining Science and Technology Capacity Requires Consideration and  
Action................................................................................................................ xxvii
Capacity Building Is an Essential Component of Development .......................... xxvii
Public Policy Issues Relating to Technology Applications Will Engender Strong
Public Debate .................................................................................................... xxvii
Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................... xxix
Glossary ......................................................................................................................... xxxi
CHAPTER 1   INTRODUCTION...................................................................................... 1
The Global Technology Revolution to 2020 .................................................................. 2
Will Moore’s Law Continue Through 2020? ............................................................. 4
Approach......................................................................................................................... 5
Technology Trend Foresight ...................................................................................... 5
International Implications........................................................................................... 7
Structure of the Report.................................................................................................... 7
CHAPTER 2  TECHNOLOGY APPLICATIONS AND THEIR EFFECTS .................... 9
Technology Trends and Applications ............................................................................. 9
Biotechnology Trends and Applications to 2020....................................................... 9
Nanotechnology Trends and Applications to 2020 .................................................. 10
Materials Trends and Applications to 2020 ............................................................. 12
Information and Communications Technology Trends and Applications to 2020 .. 14
The Integrated Effect of Technology Development ..................................................... 15
The Potential Effects of Technology Applications in 2020.......................................... 15
Cheap Solar Energy Collection, Conversion, and Storage....................................... 19
Rural Connection to Telephones and the Internet Using Wireless Communications
............................................................................................................................... 20
Communication Devices for Ubiquitous Information Access Anywhere, Anytime 21
Genetically Modified Crops ..................................................................................... 22
Rapid Bioassays ....................................................................................................... 23
Filters and Catalysts to Enable Water Purification and Decontamination ............... 23
Targeted Drug Delivery for Tumor and Pathogen Location and Destruction.......... 24

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